CPS announces on Wednesday whether to prosecute Tories over election spending breaches https://t.co/JgwAtnTdZS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
There is so much General Election polling in coming out at the moment but sometimes it is quite useful just focusing on one small number in a much smaller sampling area. Above is a screenshot of the dataset from the latest Welsh YouGov poll which covers the 40 seats at stake in the Principality on June 8th. My red arrow points to one – the proportion of UKIP voters from the last general election who now say they are switching…
Embed from Getty Images Everyone seems to agree: Labour are in for a pummelling at the upcoming general election. The opinion polls, the local election results and the anonymous comments from politicians of all parties on the campaign trail all point in the same direction. Even the newspaper pundits, constantly looking for a new angle, are unanimously predicting a Conservative landslide. Few, however, have tried to put numbers on the eventual outcome. This fool is going to rush in. I’ve…
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/860412293145923584 Could Tim Farron losing his seat be the shock of June 8th? I found the above tweet fascinating, Jim Waterson of Buzzfeed analysed which seats the Tories are targeting by looking at the ad buys in local newspapers. The one that caught my attention was Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency of Tim Farron. The symbolism of Tim Farron, the arch remainer and and advocate of another referendum, losing his seat on June 8th would be yet another blow to…
New @ORB_Int poll for The Sunday Telegraph Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc) https://t.co/zkP1tzQcEc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 46% (-1)LAB: 30% (-)LDEM: 9% (+1)UKIP: 7% (-)GRN: 2% (-1) (via @OpiniumResearch / 02 – 03 May) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 47% (-1)LAB: 28% (-1)LDEM: 11% (+1)UKIP: 6% (+1) (via YouGov) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 By @ShippersUnbound in tomorrow's @thesundaytimes….
Embed from Getty Images Pedants are quick to point out that for Labour to be decimated at the next election, they would need to lose only one in ten seats, while current polling shows them doing far worse than this. So in the interests of accuracy, I record that on 8 June I expect to see Labour crushed, marmalised and eviscerated. With the Conservatives having established close to a two power standard in most of the polling, we can expect…
There is a whole series of different sets of elections taking place today and the chart focuses on English council seats which were last fought in 2013. Mostly the seats being contested are in the old shire counties so this is not fertile territory for Labour in any circumstances period as can be seen. The Tories completely dominated last time these were fought. 2013 was the third year of the coalition waspretty bad year for the Lib Dems. It was…
On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off. The panel mull over the latest developments in the campaign, including Theresa May’s comments about EU interference in British democracy and Tim Farron’s recent run-in with a Leave voter on the stump. Topics discussed also include the lack of a Lib Dem surge in the opinion…