Good value bets for Tory and Labour backers If today’s 3% ICM poll improvement for the Tories is followed by Mori, YouGov and Populus it might just affect the betting. In recent months ICM has usually been showing bigger leads for Labour than the other firms and this might be due to the weighting it attaches to those surveyed who are not certain to vote. In July all the other pollsters had the two main parties within one percent when…
Charter 88 What are the prospects for the “Ginger Alliance”? Judging by the state of the General Election betting markets and the scores of comments on the site this week the big divide amongst political gamblers is between those who believe that the Iraq War and its aftermath has permanently damaged Tony Blair and Labour and those who think there will be a recovery. Only time will tell which view is correct. The “recoverers” believe Labour will get back with…
[next planned update – Friday] Would Blair’s scalp be offered as the price for a coalition? A big feature of the Election run-up will be the questioning of the Lib Dems about whether in a hung parliament they would prop up a defeated Blair Government or do a deal with Michael Howard – probing that could expose deep ideological differences in the party. Unlike his predecessor, Paddy Ashdown, Kennedy has been much more detached from Labour and if his party…
Blair needs a clear poll lead to avoid a hung Parliament The fact that only the Guardian seems to be reporting that all is not well with Labour does not mean that it’s not in electoral trouble. Support down by a quarter since the General Election; membership at a 70 year low having lost almost half of those that were there when Tony Blair came to power in 1997; a collapse in the popularity of the Prime Minister, and an…
Newcastle LibDem leaflet Does retaining the university seats hold the key to Tony Blair’s premiership? Applying the Martin Baxter caculator to the latest poll figures gives Labour 346 seats – 22 more than is required for a majority and the bottom of the current spread markets on the party. But how safe are the 22? Could disproportionate swings or highly focused targeting take away this number or even more seats leaving Tony Blair without a majority. Could those targets include…
UPDATE 2pm US ELECTIONS LATEST – Kerry/Edwards open up five point lead A poll just published and surveyed during the Boston Convention shows that the Democratic ticket has opened up a 5% lead over Bush/Cheney. The figures from Zogby international are 48-43. Amongst men the gap is just one percent – amongst women it is 9%. Prices have stayed stable with most UK bookmakers staying on 5/6 on both. The Iowa Electronic Exchange – where “political futures” are traded like…
Or is the “Love Affair” over? With the latest spread prices showing, not surprisingly, a further move to the Lib Dems at the expense of the Conservatives the big question for those trying to “call” the next General Election is whether and how much Labour can recover from poll ratings that the party has not seen in a generation. Is this just the normal dip of a party in power, as argued here by the head of Populus, Andrew Cooper,…
Andrew Cooper, head of Populus, posted this comment last night about his latest 30-28-28 poll. We thought it should be given a wider platform. Don’t look at the micro-movements – concentrate on the big picture. The next election result is not going to be 30-28-28; if the election had happened over the weekend when we polled the result wouldn’t have been 30-28-28. People are by and large aware of the context in which they’re being asked. The most telling number…