Back Bush to lose and Blair to go How are the political fortunes of George Bush and Tony Blair going to be affected by the findings of the Iraq Survey Group about the lack of WMDs, especially as this come on top of the acceptance by Donald Rumsfield that Saddam was not responsible for 11 September? Even before the WMD report the the White House race was moving back to John Kerry after his success in the TV debate last…
Cashing in on changes in market sentiment With UKIP losing its major donor and a reasonably favourable reaction to Michael Howard’s conference speech could this be the time to back the Conservatives on the spread markets? One of the great features of betting exchanges and spread markets is that you can make money by betting short-term on your assessment of market sentiment – not on the ultimate outcome. And we believe that sentiment is going to move one or two…
The price has gone too high After yesterday’s Populus Poll there’s been more movement on the spread betting markets and we have now reached the stage where the price on the Lib Dems is so high that we must suspend our BUY call. We first made this in mid June when the spread was for the party to get 54-58 seats. Since then the price has soared and soared and it has reached a point where it is no longer…
The money goes on the Lib Dems The initial verdict from the betting markets to the Hartlepool result is that it’s the Lib Dems who will benefit most at the General Election. The spread markets on Commons seats are:- SportingIndex – LAB 337-345 (nc): CON 210-218 (-2): LIBD 70–75 (+3) IG Index 336-344 (+3) : CON 206-214 (-6) : LIBD 71-75 (+3) The next House of Commons will consist of 646 seats so a party needs 324 to be sure…
Populus – Labour in third place nationally A series of bad national opinion surveys for Labour in the Sunday papers have transformed the betting for Thursday’s by-election in Hartlepool to elect a replacement for Peter Mandelson who has quit Westminster to become a Euro Commissioner. Yesterday morning we were suggesting that the 4/1 then available on the Lib Dems on the betting exchanges was “tempting”. As of the time of posting that price has tightened to 8/5. So yesterday a…
The tactical vote unwind – Labour style With the Lib Dems stating that “replacing the Tory party as the opposition” is their current objective a remarkable piece of Labour campaigning has been reported by a correspondent on the site. Villan sent us this message: “I live in a Tory-held Con/LibDem marginal. I was interested to get a Labour leaflet through the door the other day urging the “estimated 20-40% of Labour supporters who voted tactically for the LibDems in 2001″…
Who’s going to make the longest conference speech? Another new political betting market – the fourth in two days – on which speech by the leaders of the three main parties is going to last the longest. The prices are Michael Howard 5/4: Tony Blair 6/4: Charles Kennedy 2/1. Unlike the latest William Hill bets this market, from PaddyPower, is online. Acording to the BBC Kennedy’s speech today lasted for an hour so that’s the one to beat. The question…
Don’t be carried away by the conference euphoria In an attempt to cash in on the euphoria of the Lib Dems Bournemouth conference William Hill today launched two new General election markets for the party netiher of which is online yet. They are quoting them at odds of 7/1 to record a higher percentage of votes polled than the Conservatives and at 10/1 to get more seats than the Tories. These prices are NOT GOOD VALUE even though we’ve been…