Is a Tory BUY now good bet? Today’s Populus Poll in the Times shows a big recovery for the Tories after a tricky autumn. The figures are: LAB 34 (-1): CON 33 (+5): LD 22 (-3): UKIP 2 (-2) This has been helped by the expcted decline in UKIP following the leadership rifts and Robert Kilroy-Silk’s decision to detach himself from his MEP colleagues in Brussels. The poll itself and the big coverage being given to it by the Times…
Today’s report by the Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, John Curtice, showing how Labour could lose its overall majority even though the Tories are at a standstill has had zero impact on the betting markets. No spread prices have been available for a few days from SportingIndex market but at IG the spreads ended the day at the same level as they started:- LAB 340-348: CON 200-208: LD 70-74 The best price on Labour getting most seats remains at…
Would handicap betting make the General Election more interesting? A common practice whenever an event seems a foregone conclusion is to introduce a “handicap” element to make the betting on the second or third favourite an attractive proposition. With most of the polls showing Labour 4-5% ahead it’s very hard to see what Michael Howard will be able to take out of the General Election for the Tories. Even allowing for the pollsters’ proven tendency to always over-state the Labour…
After the excitement of the White House race it all looks a bit tame from the UK political gambling point of view. Having not really given a serious examination to the markets for weeks there do not seem to be many good bets. Labour look pretty good to get most seats at the General Election but is the 1/6 best price worth the risk? Tony Blair’s party is very likely to do but you want a better return than £10…
Betfair General Election Date Market – Jan-March 2005 There’s been a lot of activity on the election date markets following reports in the Sunday Times that Tony Blair is thinking of going to the country in February – not the 05/05/05 that everybody has been predicting. The above Betfair price chart shows the price fluctuations but it’s now settled down. Full prices here. Certainly there has been a good run of opinion polls for Labour taking the party out of…
Given the impact that the rise of UKIP has had on UK politics in the past six months any move or split within the party has to be taken seriously. With both Labour and the Tories polling in the 30s small shifts in support could have a huge impact on the General Election. Yesterday’s ICM poll recorded support for UKIP up 1% at 4%. With its most public figure calling his party “barmy” then any reduction in the national support…
We publish this article not because we think that it will happen but to demonstrate how with support for the two main parties in the 30s a totally different dynamic will apply at the next election and issues like polling accuracy and the tactical unwind will become even more critical. Last time Labour was so far ahead that inflated leads did not matter. Now they do. Today’s ICM poll in the Guardian – LAB 37% CON 31% LIBD 23% –…
Or will they benefit from the UKIP leadership hiatus? After almost three weeks without any UK national polls ICM, MORI and YouGov should be out in the next few days hopefully giving a clearer view of what the public is thinking than surveys taken at party conference time. Four years ago the end-October/early November surveys proved to be a good pointer to the election result the following June. Will the same happen this time? The Tories. Are they still in…