After the excitement of the White House race it all looks a bit tame from the UK political gambling point of view. Having not really given a serious examination to the markets for weeks there do not seem to be many good bets.
Labour look pretty good to get most seats at the General Election but is the 1/6 best price worth the risk? Tony Blair’s party is very likely to do but you want a better return than £10 for every £60 you bet.
The date of the General Election. After the flurry of activity last weekend an election in April – June 2005 is back as hot favourite. Tony Blair likes holding different elections on the same day and would not like a poor showing in the 2005 County Council elections to undermine Labour ahead of a General. So 05/05/05 is the date everybody is working to. Likely? Yes. Good value at 1/4? No.
When will Blair leave Number 10. Get 7/2 on him going before the end of 2005 which would look likely with a hung Parliament or with other events in the party. A good value bet – covers you for a lot of eventualities.
What we want is a by-election.
And back in the US. It’s now 5/1 against Hilary Clinton for 2008 on either a market on her alone or on who it might be. And if you think that the Democrate will do it in four years time the odds are now 8/11. A crazy price for an outcome so far off and is the great divide in American society going to move to the Democrats in just four years?