Big boost for Lib Dems in latest ICM poll The ICM April survey for the Guardian tomorrow is just out and the headline figures show a reduction in the Tory lead and a three point increase in the Lib Dem share. The totals with changes on last month are: CON 37%(-4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 21% (+3). Of the minor parties both UKIP and the Greens are on 2%. There was also a drop in the Tory lead when voters…
New poll suggests the Tories could get a majority of 6 seats The April poll by Communicate Research for the Independent this morning has some bleak news for Labour as it prepares for next week’s elections and the coming leadership change. For the survey reports the following with changes on last month – CON 36%(+1): LAB 27%(-4): LD 22%(+2). The detailed data, which helpfully is published this morning as well (other pollsters please note), reports shares for the minor parties…
Is there money to be made looking for short-term movements? After the May 3rd elections at least one other spread-betting firm will be offering a general election seat market to run alongside that from Spreadfair (see latest price above) on how many MPs each of the main parties will get next time. If the next election follows previous ones then this form of betting and these prices will play a key part in the next two years or so. For…
Is Miliband going to do it or not? If the young environment secretary wants a good example of the dangers of not taking leadership chances when they occur he need look no further than Gordon Brown himself. For one of the clear messages to come out of yesterday’s marathon showing of the 1992 general election results programme was the powerful position that Gordon had in the immediate aftermath of Labour’s defeat. The eventual replacement for Kinnock, John Smith, was being…
When a 1% Tory polling deficit became an 8% lead On the eve of the fifteenth anniversary of John Major’s shock general election victory in 1992 the BBC Parliament channel is devoting most of its bank holiday schedule to showing the BBC’s results programme from that night. It’s available online as well as via Freeview, satellite and cable. It starts at 9am and is repeated at 2pm and 7pm. Even though it’s a decade and a half ago Nick Sparrow,…
Will there be another bonanza for Brown BrandIndex punters? Those punters who sold Brown on the IG politicians popularity market in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s budget speech look set to pocket another big parcel of cash as more polling has shown that the contents and the Chancellor himself have gone down badly. Rather than wait for the actual index numbers I closed my Brown positions down yesterday making this, together with the successful budget length bets, my most profitable…
Could the budget “masterstroke” have scuppered Gordon’s chances? What a difference two days make? After all the cheers from his fellow Labour MPs on Wednesday there’s a massive blow to Brown and his party from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph this morning. For in the first poll since the budget there is a 2% increase in the Tory lead. These are the figures compared with the last survey from the internet pollster – CON 39% (+1): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Will the Chancellor be bringing on Deborah again? There are two news polls in the papers this morning both of which were carried out by the internet pollster YouGov and both of which give fairly similar main voting shares. Only one of them, however, appears under the YouGov name. The main headline figures in the Sunday Times with changes on the last YouGov survey show CON 38% (+1): LAB 32% (nc): LD 16% (-1). I cannot find a figure for…