The first national opinion poll to be published from Ipsos-MORI since the end of April is just out and shows the Tories with a 17% lead. The main figures are above. The fieldwork was carried out by phone from June 13th – June 15th – so the polling was done at the start of last week. The pollster has also revealed its figures for May which were CON 45%: LAB 13% 33%: LD 14%. These had been held up pending…
How punters have reacted to his first twelve months At almost exactly 3.30pm on the afternoon of June 27th 2007, just after Gordon Brown had started works as prime minister, I took the snap-shot below of the main general election betting markets. I did this partially as a matter of record. This afternoon, at almost exactly the same time I took another snap-shot of the same markets so we can see how things have changed. General Election betting – June…
Did his intervention change the mood in Gord’s election U-turn week? On the final day of Gordon Brown’s first year as PM the media look-back continues with an excellent breakdown by Patrick Wintour and Nicholas Watt in the Guardian of the events that led to that fateful decision to abandon a November 1st 2007 general election. Step-by-step each move during September and early October is examined and the authors come to a view that I have not seen before –…
Would he get the kudos for putting his career on the line? The latest ICM poll means that all the main pollsters who report at least monthly on public opinion are showing almost exactly the same figures. Three have Labour at 25% the other, ComRes, has it at 26%. And the Tory shares and overall leads are in the same ball-park as well. There can be no doubt about what would happen if there was an immediate general election. Add…
The polling continues to move in just one direction The June survey from ICM for the Guardian, the longest running polling series in the UK media, is just out and reinforces the trend seen from other pollsters. The figures with comparisons on the last ICM poll three weeks ago are: CON 45% (+3): LAB 25% (-1): LD 20% (-1) The move comes in spite of some difficult media coverage for Cameron’s party over nannygate and MEP expenses. Putting these numbers…
Has Brown the strength to reclaim the word STRONG? It’s hard to credit it now but in those heady days of the final week of September 2007 Labour party spinners were putting it about that their polling had discovered a new type of voter that they termed “Gordon Conservatives”. These were people, it was claimed, who had voted Tory in 2005 but had then decided to support Brown’s changed Labour party On September 24th 2007 Ben Brogan reported: “Remember the…
Unregistered BPIX puts the Tories on 49% The start of Brown’s first anniversary week sees more disappointing poll news – this time from BPIX – the polling firm that is not registered with the British Polling Council and whose website consists of just one page that has been “under construction” for several years. The survey, in the Mail on Sunday, is the first from the pollster since October last year so there’s no real point in showing comparisons. Today’s figures,…
Are too many public service workers included in samples? The overwhelming characteristic of British political opinion polling for decades has been the constant over-statement of Labour position in relation to the other parties. This came to a head at the London Mayoral election where the three phone pollsters were producing very different figures from the online firm, YouGov. To their great credit ICM and Ipsos-MORI did something about it. The former made some adjustments to its approach while the latter…