Unregistered BPIX puts the Tories on 49%
The start of Brown’s first anniversary week sees more disappointing poll news – this time from BPIX – the polling firm that is not registered with the British Polling Council and whose website consists of just one page that has been “under construction” for several years.
The survey, in the Mail on Sunday, is the first from the pollster since October last year so there’s no real point in showing comparisons. Today’s figures, based on a sample of 2,385 who were questioned online between Wednesday and Friday are: CON 49%: LAB 26%: LD 14%.
My understanding is that the fieldwork for BPIX polls is carried out by YouGov which provides the service on a “white label” basis. The frustrating element is that they never publish their full data and never answer email requests when people like me ask for it. So we don’t know, for instance, the form of the questions and whether they follow the YouGov system of weighting by party ID. But their work is published by a major national newspaper and in May 2005 their final poll was one of the most accurate.
A 49% Tory share was last seen in a YouGov survey for the Sun just after the local elections and Boris’s London win in May. The BPIX Labour 26% is the same as has been reported in the latest surveys from ICM and ComRes and is one point higher than the recent Populus and YouGov polls – so a level of consistency across the firms is emerging there.
The figure that is out of line with the other firms is the 14% Lib Dem share which is 7 points below what ICM last reported and 4 points down on YouGov. Without seeing the data it is impossible to suggest a reason. In October 2007 the “firm” was also reporting the lowest LD shares – then it was down to 11%.
The Mail on Sunday report has a series of graphics on the poll which look as though they are straight out of the Jeremy Vine play book.
Will it affect the betting? Probably not. The spread markets are still suggesting a Conservative overall majority of 32 – which is way below the seat levels you get by putting these numbers into the standard calculators.