ICM gives the Tories a record 20% lead

ICM gives the Tories a record 20% lead


    The polling continues to move in just one direction

The June survey from ICM for the Guardian, the longest running polling series in the UK media, is just out and reinforces the trend seen from other pollsters.

The figures with comparisons on the last ICM poll three weeks ago are: CON 45% (+3): LAB 25% (-1): LD 20% (-1)

The move comes in spite of some difficult media coverage for Cameron’s party over nannygate and MEP expenses.

Putting these numbers into the Anthony Wells seat calculator and we get a projected House of Commons looking like this: CON 409: LAB 177: LD 35: OTH 29 seats – a conservative overall majority of 168 seats. Such a result would cut the number of Labour MPs in half.

It should be noted that ICM did make some adjustments to its methodology following the London Mayoral election which adds maybe 1-2% to the Tory overall lead.

In his analysis of the survey the Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, writes: “A majority of people who backed Labour at the last election, 57%, also say that they do not think the party can win again with Brown as leader. Even among current Labour supporters, 38% think Brown cannot win..Labour is shedding support to both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats: 17% of people who backed the party in 2005 are thinking of backing the Tories instead while 7% may vote Lib Dem..The government has struggled to retain even its core supporters over the last year. Among people who voted Labour in 2005, only 3% of voters say that their impression of the prime minister and his party has gone up, while 46% say that it has gone down.”

This might push the spread markets a few seats towards the Tories.

Mike Smithson


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