CON 40 (+4) LAB 25 (+1) LD 22 (+5) All parties see increases from BPIX/YouGov Thanks to “Me” on the ICM thread for picking up today’s BPIX/YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday. The shares above are compared with the last poll from the firm which appeared on August 23rd and had a massive 23% share for others. It seemed out of line then but this latest poll is very much showing the same picture as the other post-Lib Dem…
BBC news programmes search results Is it simply the “Cameron being invisible” effect again? It’s more than three and a half years since I put forward the theory that a key driver of the voting intention poll numbers is the level of coverage that David Cameron has been getting on the TV in the week or so before the survey’s fieldwork takes place. What’s interesting is that this seems to hold good even if the story is a negative one….
Has Baroness Vadera paved the way for a G20 role? Last March, ahead of the G20 meeting in London, there was speculation that Gordon could come out of global financial crisis with some new world role which would mean that he’d have a dignified exit route from Number 10. Well those thoughts are coming to the fore again with the juxtaposition of today’s G20 meeting in Pittsburgh and yesterday’s announcement of Baroness Vadera’s resignation as a minister and news of…
Telegraph Have the Telegraph editors lost their sense of proportion? If you had been following the PB thread last night and had monitored other political blogs then you’d have thought that the political world as we know it was about to come to an end. I was being texted and called with the news that something “very big was going to break”. The story came out at 10pm and looking at how the paper has treated it you would have…
Can Pickles entice Lib Dems into voting Tory? This week I’ve been on holiday in Hadrian’s Wall country in Northumberland away from a fast internet connection so I have been unable to catch up on what seems to have been the political broadcasting highlight – the encounter on the Today programme between Tory Chairman, Eric Pickles, and the prominent Lib Dem, Chris Huhne. See this from Harry Phibbs in the Guardian for the details and a description of Chris Huhne’s…
Is there a case for a Lib Dem sell? The Sporting Index Spread Market on the number of commons seats the parties will win at the general election has seen little movement in recent weeks – but could all that change after the conferences? Whether Nick Clegg manages to put things on a firmer footing in his speech this afternoon remains to be seen but given that this is the last big showcase before the general election the best that…
UKPollingReport Could the party of “fair votes” support the vote losers? One of the hardy annuals of Lib Dem conference week is that people start asking which way Clegg’s party would go in the event of a hung parliament and they held the balance of power. But is this totally irrelevant? For the way the electoral mathematics work means that Labour would only need Lib Dem support for a commons majority if it came behind the Tories in terms of…
Why do they sound as though it’s still 1997? My apologies for the vulgar headline but it seemed the most apt phrase to describe what the Lib Dems have been doing in recent days in not directing all their fire-power on the weak declining party in British politics. For the big dynamic only months away from the general election is the collapse of Labour – which is the mirror of 1997 when it was the collapse of the Tories. Then…