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Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

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How do these numbers fit with your article Professor? My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:- “…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservatives’ lead over Labour not nearly as…

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Is now the time to back the Lib Dems?

Is now the time to back the Lib Dems?

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Will they repeat their conference bounce come the election? Conference season 2009 is over and with YouGov having helpfully provided their tracker poll for Sky almost daily, now’s a good time to look back to see what lessons can be drawn for the coming months. The most obvious effect was that each of the parties gained a boost in their share during and immediately after their conference. That’s perhaps to be expected as each was able to control much of…

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Non-tracker YouGov poll shows 14 point Tory lead

Non-tracker YouGov poll shows 14 point Tory lead

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CON 42% (-2) LAB 28% (+1) LD 19%(+2) Is it back to where we were before the conferences? A new non-tracker full sample YouGov poll for the Sun is just out and the figure are shown with comparisons on the latest tracker poll where the most of the fieldwork took place last night. This is a standard 2.161 sample survey and has variations on the smaller poll that was completed a few hours earlier. I’m coming to the view that…

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What does this say about the “Cameron on the telly” thesis?

What does this say about the “Cameron on the telly” thesis?

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CON 44% (+4) LAB 27% (-4) LD 17%(-1) The tracker sees Labour’s deficit increase by 8 points Long-standing regulars will know that for years I’ve argued that that there is a close correlation between the amount of coverage that Cameron gets on TV and his party’s poll ratings. So after the “saturation-Cameron” coverage around his big speech ahead of the field-work for the latest YouGov tracker what happens? Of course. The Tories see their share moving to 44% all at…

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Is “fighting big government” going to resonate?

Is “fighting big government” going to resonate?

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Or has Cameron provided the ammunition for Labour? The critical element about party leaders’ big conference speeches ahead of general elections is that they define the big message that will be put to the voters and the core proposition on which they will be asking the public to vote for them. Several of the papers this morning pick out the Cameron approach to big government and the state as their view of the over-arching theme and, indeed, the way they…

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Is this what voters will ditch Labour for?

Is this what voters will ditch Labour for?

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BBC Does the Osborne gamble dominate everything? If the polls have got this right then within the next seven months George Osborne will be the chancellor at a time when circumstances dictate hard unpopular action. The question for the Tories here in Manchester this week was whether to try to skip over the details and talk in generalities or else or to start to spell out how a Tory government would handle things. Along with many I thought that they’s…

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..and the first post Osborne speech poll has..??

..and the first post Osborne speech poll has..??

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CON 43% (+2) LAB 29% (+1) LD 17%(-1) Will this easy the Tory jitters? So there we are – the first full poll after George Osborne’s speech yesterday. All the fieldwork would have taken place after the speech. Although these movements are within the margin of error Tory strategists will be breathing a sign of relief that the first reaction to the gamble seems positive. I think that we are seeing another effect – the Labour vote is hardening at…

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Is Pickles trying to hijack the Lib Dems “fair votes” rhetoric?

Is Pickles trying to hijack the Lib Dems “fair votes” rhetoric?

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Will this muddy the waters in the electoral reform debate? It’s surprising that with electoral reform being pushed up the election agenda by Labour, the comments by Tory chairman, Eric Pickles, in his conference speech don’t seemed to have attracted much attention. For under the banner of the Lib Dem “fair votes” rhetoric Pickles is pressing for the Tory version of electors reform which involves cutting the numbers of seats and having fresh boundary reviews after each general election. Acknowledging…

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