Browsed by
Category: General Election

Will MORI help us to map a possible Tory victory better?

Will MORI help us to map a possible Tory victory better?

Comments 0 Comment

1979 polling data is being made available online Part of my standard patter whenever I give talks about the coming election is that we are moving into what is almost uncharted territory. Changes of opinion on the scale that the polls are currently showing happen very rarely and, of course, there has been only one change of government in the past thirty years. One of the challenges for those who like betting on and predicting elections is that the only…

Read More Read More

Will Dave pass the November 11 plus test?

Will Dave pass the November 11 plus test?

Comments 0 Comment

PaddyPower Can he keep the Tory lead to a minimum of 11%? We are nearly at the end of October and time to consider the PaddyPower market on what’s going to happen to the polls next month. Can the Tories sustain a lead of a minimum of 11 points in all the published polls from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM in November? If you think they can then there’s a not unattractive evens bet available. When it first came…

Read More Read More

Is Dave out of synch with his party on climate change?

Is Dave out of synch with his party on climate change?

Comments 0 Comment

Could he be storing up trouble for the future? The 2006 picture of David Cameron with the huskies in the Arctic became one of the defining images of the first few months of his leadership as he sought to create a new narrative for the party. Here was a Conservative leader embracing one of the key issues of the day and what better way of making this into a news story than the trip to Norway. But is his view…

Read More Read More

Do women candidates fare better than men?

Do women candidates fare better than men?

Comments 0 Comment

Angus Reid Strategies Does Cameron’s plan make electoral sense? It’s one of those bits of received wisdom you often hear from political campaigners – you get a small but noticeable boost if your candidate is a woman particularly if she is the only one on the ballot. Well as part of a poll in the wake of the Tory all-women short-list row Angus Reid Strategies, who do PB’s monthly voting intention survey, have come up with a number of findings…

Read More Read More

Will the BNP succeed in infiltrating YouGov?

Will the BNP succeed in infiltrating YouGov?

Comments 0 Comment

BNP Should we be worried about the polling scam?? Reproduced above is part of a page from the BNP website and sets out a scam aimed at both raising the party’s polling numbers and making money at the same time. The site spells it out: “..Despite recently getting two MEPs elected our support in Yougov polls has recently dropped to 3%. One of the main reasons people don’t vote for us is because they believe we are a wasted vote,…

Read More Read More

YouGov points to big blue inroads in Wales

YouGov points to big blue inroads in Wales

Comments 0 Comment

CON 31% (+9.6) LAB 34% (-8.7) LD 12% (-6.4) PC 15% (+2.4) The first Wales-only YouGov poll The much anticipated first YouGov voting intention poll of Welsh voters is just out and suggests that the Tories are going to make big gains in a part of the UK which used to be almost a blue-free zone. The comparisons above are with what actually happened in the Principality on May 5th 2005. Then Labour won 29 of the 40 seats with…

Read More Read More

Is Easterross right – “The SW will be a Lib Dem free-zone”?

Is Easterross right – “The SW will be a Lib Dem free-zone”?

Comments 0 Comment

PoliticsHome MegaMarginals poll Oct 2009 What does the polling show? Ever since the PoliticsHome mega marginals survey came out at the start of October I’ve been planning to do specific threads on each of the seat segments that were included within the 33,000 sample survey. What’s prompted me to do something now is a comment on the previous thread Easterross in which he asserted that “Cornwall, Devon and Somerset will be ALMOST LibDem free zones come 10th May 2010.” He…

Read More Read More

Who’ll win the general election handicap?

Who’ll win the general election handicap?

Comments 0 Comment

Can anybody spot the value bet? Over the weekend the ever resourceful Shadsy at Ladbrokes introduced his general election vote share handicap. Essentially there are three runners – the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems – and you have to work out who’ll come out top applying the handicaps as set out. So the Tories start at scratch, Labour at +15 percentage points of the GB vote share with the Lib Dems on +22 points. So if the result was…

Read More Read More