Can anybody spot the value bet?
Over the weekend the ever resourceful Shadsy at Ladbrokes introduced his general election vote share handicap.
Essentially there are three runners – the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems – and you have to work out who’ll come out top applying the handicaps as set out. So the Tories start at scratch, Labour at +15 percentage points of the GB vote share with the Lib Dems on +22 points.
So if the result was precisely CON 43%: LAB 28%: LD 21% then there would be a three-way dead heat.
I’ve been playing about with these numbers and based on current polling it’s hard to find the winner. Looking at the latest polls it goes:-
YELLOW with YouGov’s C40-L27-LD19 and the PB/Angus Reid C40-L23-LD20
BLUE from ICM’s C44-L27-LD18 and the MORI C43-L26-LD19.
RED with ComRes’s C40-L28-LD19 and the Populus C40-L30-LD18
So the six regular monthly pollsters split 2:2:2. A well thought out market but no obvious bet.