Can he keep the Tory lead to a minimum of 11%?
We are nearly at the end of October and time to consider the PaddyPower market on what’s going to happen to the polls next month.
Can the Tories sustain a lead of a minimum of 11 points in all the published polls from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM in November? If you think they can then there’s a not unattractive evens bet available.
When it first came out my preference was for the 6% – 10% segment. Now things have changed. It’s hard to see the Tories getting a lead of 16% or more across the full range of pollsters but the chances must be on them keeping at 11% or more.
So the 11% – 15% segment is the one to opt for in this innovative new market.
What am I doing? Unfortunately because PaddyPower consulted me on it I’m barred from betting.