Angus Reid Strategies Should all pollsters get their data out on the same day? Here is the main set of cross-tabs with the regional and gender splits from this evening’s Politicalbetting/Angus Reid poll which is showing almost no change in the overall picture. Download the full set for yourself here. One of the things I was very keen on when we were setting up the arrangement with the pollster was that the full data-set should be made available as soon…
CON 40%(39) LAB 23%(22) LD 19%(21) OTHERS 18% (18) Has Labour been hurt by the PBR? In the first national voting intention poll to be published after Mr.Darling’s PBR statement both Labour and the Tories move up but the Lib Dem drop down. Fieldwork started on Tuesday and carried on until a few hours ago with just under a third of responses coming in after the Chancellor’s statement. So of the last four national voting intention polls to come out…
Could the AAA rating be lost? There’s been lots of talk about the possibility of Britain losing its triple A credit rating and there’ve been dire forecasts of the consequences of such a decision. But just how likely is it? What do we think of the new PaddyPower betting market?. The firm is offering 6/4 against the possibility that Great Britain to lose its AAA Rating before Jan 31st 2010. The bet will be settled according to the assessment of…
Your papers Mr. Darling Here is a selection is selection of today’s front pages from Sky News and the coverage is almost universally negative for Mr. Darling and for the government. The only paper that seeks to put a positive slant on it is the ultra-loyal Daily Mirror which has been doing this for the party for decades. If this was meant to be the platform to launch Labour’s election campaign then the best that can be said is that…
Is it worth risking money on the Martin prediction? Iain Martin in his WSJ blog writes:- …It seems obvious that it was aimed at an election earlier than May, with polling day probably on March 25. In this scenario, Brown would ask the Queen for a dissolution after Parliament returns from its two-week recess on Monday, Feb. 22. That would lead into a four-week-and-a-bit campaign… A March 25 election date would also help Labour on two fronts. The party machine…
CON 38%(39) LAB 30%(29) LD 20%(18) OTHERS % 11(14) This really is hung parliament territory As predicted in the previous thread this evening Populus poll for the Times has some good news for Brown Central following the party’s relatively good week – even though it is all well within the margin of error This is the closest the parties have been with the firm for exactly a year. In December 2008 the pollster reported a 4 point margin. There’s little…
Could another firm have the lead down to single figures? I’ve had it confirmed that the Populus December survey for the Times did take place over the weekend and if things are following their normal pattern we should find out about it tonight. This will be the first public poll to have been carried out wholly after Mr. Brown’s PMQ performance last Wednesday – an event that has reverberated throughout the Westminster village and is helping shape the media narrative….
YouGov for Channel 4 June 2009 Can Labour really expect to benefit most? The above is from the massive 32,268 sample YouGov poll taken just before the Euro Election last June and is just about the best resource we’ve got on the attitudes and backgrounds of those who, in that election at least, supported the “others” – the BNP, UKIP or the Greens. For given the continued very high shares that are being recorded for this segment this survey might…