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Category: General Election

Did Straw make a last-ditch effort to stop Blair?

Did Straw make a last-ditch effort to stop Blair?

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Guardian Is this going to keep Iraq in the news? The main story in the Guardian is about a private letter that the then Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, wrote to the Tony Blair just before the invasion of Iraq suggesting, amongst other things, that Britain should offer the Americans “political and moral support” in their campaign against Saddam Hussein, but not military backing. According to the paper Straw “reportedly urged Blair to tell George Bush that British troops would help…

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Should you be backing April at 16/1?

Should you be backing April at 16/1?

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Could April 8th be the day? The veteran FT political columnist, Sue Cameron, has what could be a shrewd point this morning on the election date. She writes:- “Tory leader David Cameron talks of March 25 as polling day, which would save Labour having an austerity Budget. Others suggest May 6 to coincide with the local elections. Labour, they say, cannot afford to fund two elections and its core vote will only turn out once. I hear the shrewd money…

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This must be the political interview of the year?

This must be the political interview of the year?

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Listen to the John Hutton interview Is this a foretaste of what’s to come? If you have not caught up yet with the John Hutton interview on this evening’s PM programme then listen to to it now. The headline story of Hutton’s admission to being the cabinet members expressing serious doubts about Gordon Brown in September 2006 is only part of it – although the way that comes out in the discourse is of itself quite dramatic. Eddie Mair’s quiet…

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Which Tories will need to watch their backs for Rory?

Which Tories will need to watch their backs for Rory?

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Could he take over if it goes pear-shaped for Dave? I’ve just listened on catch-up to last Friday’s edition of Radio 4’s Any Questions when the newly-selected Tory PPC for Penrith, Rory Stewart, had to stand in at the last minute. We’ve featured the multi-talented Mr. Stewart before and even though he’s not yet an MP he’s listed by both PaddyPower and Ladbrokes in their markets for next Tory leader. The former has him as fourth favourite at a pretty…

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Should the Indy/Comres have heeded Sir Humphrey’s advice?

Should the Indy/Comres have heeded Sir Humphrey’s advice?

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Isn’t it all about how the questions are framed? The above clip always makes me chuckle and although it’s from a comedy show and is perhaps a bit over the top it’s a useful reminder about the hazards of non-standard polling questions. So what are we too make of the poll findings from the ComRes survey that the Indy is leading on this morning. The first non-voting related question asked whether respondees agreed that “A Conservative Government would mainly represent…

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The polling see-saw continues

The polling see-saw continues

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CON 38% (41) LAB 29% (24) LD 19% (21) OTHERS 14% (14) It’s now Labour up five from Comres in just nine days In keeping with the wise words on MORI founder, Sir Bob Worcester, I’m going to try not to report polls in terms of the lead – focussing on the party shares instead. As Bob says with the lead you have double the margin of error. So after the last ComRes poll which was published nine days ago…

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What’s this going to do to the campaign?

What’s this going to do to the campaign?

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SkyNews Why’s Cameron taking such a gamble? So now we have it. British election campaigns are never going to be the same again. For the long push by the broadcasters to get live TV debates between the three main leaders seems to have succeeded. ITV will host the first chaired by Alistair Stewart; Sky has the second with Adam Boulton while the final one will be a BBC affair with David Dimbleby in the che chair. Each programme will last…

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Was it the the PBR that changed the climate?

Was it the the PBR that changed the climate?

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Newspaper front pages December 10 Is the Bob Worcester analysis on the nail? Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, posted this on the overnight thread. “What’s going on, the polls seem all over the place? One says a lead of 6 and another a lead of 17. ” I’ve been hearing that for many a year. So what is going on? Part of the answer is ‘events, dear boy, events” And the Pre-Budget Review (PRB) was not just an event…

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