YouGov Daily poll Mar 18 Mar 17 CONSERVATIVES 36% 36% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 3% The Tory lead remains at 4 points So there’s not really a lot to say. Peter Kellner has published a statement on revisions to their methodology which I plan to look at tomorrow. Mike Smithson
An invitation to participants to do a PB guest slot Tomorrow an academic conference starts in Manchester on forecasting the general election. A series of papers are going to be presented and all of them, as far as I can gather, suggest that there will be a hung parliament. I’ve already invited Matt Lebo of Stony Brook University in New York to do a guest slot on his model that seeks to predict outcomes from from prime ministerial approval ratings….
Populus
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 17 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 39% 39% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 21% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 8% Lib Dems up three as others slump The latest in the exclusive Politicalbetting/Angus Reid polling series is just out and shows one big major change – a slump in support for “others” to 14%. This is the lowest it has ever been and brings AR more into line with other firms. Alas for Brown…
Will rubbishing Clegg encourage tactical voting? Being identified on both the Labour and Tory central databases as a Lib Dem in a highly marginal seat I’m getting a lot of attention from both big parties – this latest, an expensive postcard, came in the mail this morning. Squeezing known LDs is clearly a key strategy but I just wonder whether this approach is right. To me it shows simplistic thinking which might look smart at Labour HQ but is not…
What if Bercow does what he did yesterday? With the BA strike getting closer then Cameron is surely going to raise it with Mr. Brown at PMQs today. But what happens if he touches on the Labour party’s close links with the union involved, UNITE. Could Speaker Bercow do what he sought to do yesterday and try to prevent this from being raised – his point being that questions should be about government and not party business. For in theory…
RNB – New Delhi Mar 10 2005 CONSERVATIVES 39% 33.2% LABOUR 31% 36.2% LIB DEMS 20% 22.7% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% — What do think of RNB’s numbers and unique analysis? Thanks to Gabble on a thread last night for spotting this – a new opinion poll from a leading research company from India which carried out a survey of Westminster voting intentions from a sample of 1,800 voters from March 4 to March 10th. The findings,…
YouGov Daily poll Mar 16 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3.5% And the LD bounce starts to fade So the only change tonight is a two point drop in the Lib Dem share – the Tory and Labour shares stay the same. Not a lot else to say really. Mike Smithson