Populus for the Times Apr 7 Feb 7 CONSERVATIVES 39.3% 40% LABOUR 31.6% 30% LIB DEMS 20.8% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.4% 6.5% But why record the figures without rounding? Tonight’s poll by Populus for the Times is hugely significant because the firm’s methodology is based on ICM and generally the fieldwork is carried out from ICM call centres. So it provides us with something that’s quite similar to compare the recent ICM poll with – that’s…
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Apr 7 Apr 3 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 26% 27% LIB DEMS 22% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 7% 7% But the Labour still have a double digit deficit There’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll just out and the figures are above. Polling started yesterday and went on until this afternoon – and was almost all carried out after the election was declared by Mr. Brown yesterday. The comparisons are with the weekend’s AR…
Let’s stop the clap-trap about the uniform national swing So much tosh will be talked about the UNS (Uniform National Swing) in the coming weeks that I thought that we ought to feature a reminder of how successful it’s been in the past four election in predicting eventual seat totals from the national vote share numbers. Thanks to Andy Cooke on the previous thread for providing this. In 1992, Labour ourtperformed the UNS (which was about 2%) by 1-2% in…
Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly Net Change BROWN 33% (33) 61% (61) -28 0 CAMERON 53% (49) 36% (39) +17 +7 CLEGG 54% (47) 23% (27) +31 +11 YouGov Sunday Times: FW Apr 3 (Mar 19) Nick and Dave advance while Gord stands still The latest leader approval ratings numbers from YouGov are just out and show that Cameron and Clegg continue to improve while Gordon Brown remains where he was a fortnight ago.
What’s the £5.50 gallon going to do to “Motorway Man”? A combination of budgets measures and the declining pound has forced the price of petrol up and it now stands at just on £1.20 a litre or £5.50 a gallon equalling the highest level ever. Historically there’s been a link between the price of petrol and Labour’s position in the polls. Look at the latest version of this chart that we’ve featured before. Whatgas Given that one of the key…
Message from Robert: I will be doing some minor site maintenance today ahead of the expected announcement this afternoon. Hopefully there won’t be any downtime. But, if there is, you know who to blame. Brand Democracy/YG Mar 19 CON LAB LD OTH 45-54 year olds 32% 38% 17% 13% 55-64 year old 39% 27% 19% 15% All 55 and over 46% 24% 16% 14% All 65 and over 49% 23% 15% 13% All 18+ 37% 31% 19% 13% The over…
YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 5 Apr 2 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 31% 29% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 6.5% What do we make of the conflicting figures? So there we have it – the YouGov daily poll where the fieldwork finished this evening showing very different numbers from the Guardian/ICM poll earlier with the margin down to just four points. But like ICM the Labour share has increased with YouGov – so…
Opinium (Daily Express) Apr 5 Mar 29 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 29% 28% LIB DEMS 17% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 6.5% And the Tories move up one to 39 A second poll is just out, from new kid on the block Opinium, and this has the gap between the blues and the reds still at ten points although both move up one. I don’t have the Lib Dem figure yet. The firm is a new pollster…