Browsed by
Category: General Election

Will the coalition hit the winning Miliband hard from day one?

Will the coalition hit the winning Miliband hard from day one?

Comments 0 Comment

Have they learnt the lesson of Cameron’s easy ride? Interesting piece from the Speccie’s James Forsyth in the Mail on Sunday on the coalition’s attack plans for when Dave or EdM is elected on the afternoon of September 25th. He writes: “This desire to launch an instant strike is a product of David Cameron’s own experience. When he became Tory leader in 2005, Brown wanted to go for him straight away but Tony Blair overruled him, arguing that they needed…

Read More Read More

What’ll this do to Huhne’s re-election chances in Eastleigh?

What’ll this do to Huhne’s re-election chances in Eastleigh?

Comments 0 Comment

Guardian How can there now be a full-blooded Tory campaign? A big political story in the papers this morning is the coverage of the joint political press conference by Tory chair, Baroness Warsi and the LD cabinet minister, Chris Huhne. This was a joint move to attack Labour to try put the blame on what the coalition is having to do on the former government. For me the greater significance of this is not what they said but what it…

Read More Read More

Could October’s polls point to a Labour majority?

Could October’s polls point to a Labour majority?

Comments 0 Comment

New Leader Pre-election ICM Post-election ICM Uplift John Smith 1992 35 39.33 4.33 Tony Blair 1994 44.66 47.66 3 William Hague 1997 31.4 (GE result) 25 -6.4 Iain Duncan Smith 2001 29.66 29 -0.66 Michael Howard 2003 32.66 33.33 0.66 David Cameron 2005 37.33 39.33 2 Gordon Brown 2007 31 39 8 Mili-E/Mili-D 2010 ?? ?? ? What’ll be the scale of the new leader bounce? If the next election is fought on the current boundaries then the uniform swing…

Read More Read More

ComRes makes it 39/33/16

ComRes makes it 39/33/16

Comments 0 Comment

Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD ComRes/Independent 08/08/10 39 33 16 YouGov/Sun Times 06/08/10 42 36 13 YouGov/Sun 02/07/10 42 38 12 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 Only the third non-YouGov poll in six weeks The online pollster, YouGov,…

Read More Read More

YouGov have the Lib Dems at 12%

YouGov have the Lib Dems at 12%

Comments 0 Comment

Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun Times 30/07/10 42 38 12 YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Is this a reaction to the Robinson programme? The latest daily poll from the YouGov panel has the Lib Dems down to one of their lowest shares…

Read More Read More

Punters pile on Mili-D after YouGov?

Punters pile on Mili-D after YouGov?

Comments 0 Comment

But could the race still produce a surprise? It was inevitable that the first opinion surveys restricted to those who can actually vote in Labour’s election was going to spark off a fair amount of activity on the betting markets. The big move has been to the elder Miliband where the best bookie price is now 1/2. His brother Ed has moved out to 7/4 while Balls/Burnham/Abbott are now seen an rank outsiders with almost no chance whatsoever. On Betfair…

Read More Read More

Did the Tories come a bit too well prepared?

Did the Tories come a bit too well prepared?

Comments 0 Comment

BBC programme info Will the programme change our view of the coalition? There’s an intriguing snippet on Nick Robinson’s BBC blog about his programme tomorrow night on how the coalition came about. “..The Tories have been keen to downplay how prepared they were for hung Parliament negotiations. However, on the day after the polls closed, Letwin appeared to know more about Lib Dem policy than any of Nick Clegg’s negotiators. The Tories arrived at talks with a string of policy…

Read More Read More

Are people “mis-remembering” about voting Lib Dem?

Are people “mis-remembering” about voting Lib Dem?

Comments 0 Comment

Do more say they were Yellow than actually were? We all know the big story of the general election and the polls. When the votes were counted the 23.6% GB share that the Lib Dems chalked up was much smaller than all the pre-election polls. At one point YouGov had Clegg’s party with a four point lead on 34%. Yet eleven weeks on from May 6th an interesting trend has developed. When pollsters ask how people voted they invariably find…

Read More Read More