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Category: General Election

Will newspaper endorsements matter as much any more?

Will newspaper endorsements matter as much any more?

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The Sun – May 6th 2010 Henry G Manson ponders about the post-scandal media world On Sunday, Damian Thompson, Editor of the Telegraph Blogs launched a striking attack on David Cameron and the News International phonehacking affair. He concluded, “It will be difficult to vote Tory at the next election.” This caught me by surprise and set me thinking if it was at all conceivable that the Telegraph could actually withdraw its support for the Conservatives under David Cameron? What…

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Will the “official” campaigns become even more important?

Will the “official” campaigns become even more important?

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Are voters waiting longer to decide? It is received political wisdom that most general elections are won or lost not in the three or four weeks between the dissolution of Parliament and the day of the election, but in the months and years beforehand. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is true. Even in 2010 where the performance of Nick Clegg in the first leadership debate shook-up the polls, betting markets and media commentary, it is…

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Will the leaders be crucial again in 2015?

Will the leaders be crucial again in 2015?

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Ipsos MORI’s research over the past few general elections has shown that voters themselves placed more weight on the parties’ policies (46%, for example in 2005) than on the image of the leader (31%) or party image (23%) when deciding how to vote. 2010 was different. Even before the leadership debates, in February 2010 the public were giving equal weight to the importance of leaders and policies in their voting decision. The question looking ahead is whether the increasing prominence…

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How precarious are Nick and Ed’s positions?

How precarious are Nick and Ed’s positions?

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Could they be in for a tricky conference season? Stan James has an interesting market on which of the three main party leaders will be the first to leave before. The exits have to take place before the next general election and there’s an option that all three will be in place. Clegg is 7/4 Miliband is 2/1 Cameron is 12/1 None of them 5/4 Politicians are a remarkably resilient lot and it takes a lot to shift someone who has got…

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Will being tough on crime/immigrants win Tory converts?

Will being tough on crime/immigrants win Tory converts?

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Or are we seeing a core votes strategy? The chart shows the party splits in today’s YouGov “Issues facing you/your family findings and shows a vast difference in the view of what’s important between supporters of the three parties in four key areas. Thus on immigration Tory voters are seven times more likely to be concerned than Lib Dem ones who registered just three percent. Today’s results on the environment are almost exactly a mirror image with LD being seven…

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Is holding onto 2010 gains Dave’s first challenge?

Is holding onto 2010 gains Dave’s first challenge?

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Can the blues get a big enough lead over the reds? For a whole series of reasons I regard the ICM poll each month as the most definitive pointer to the current state of opinion. Unlike YouGov and some ComRes polls their fieldwork is carried out over the phone; the firm does not have the sampling problems caused by newspaper readership weightings; and unlike all the other pollsters ICM has a unique weighting structure that puts a premium on the…

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The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

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Why Labour should be concerned about Miliband’s numbers The declining leadership ratings for Ed Miliband have raised again the question of whether these are a better pointer to electoral outcomes than standard voting intention surveys when those sampled are asked about the party they will vote for. Exactly three months ago yesterday, on March 19th 2011, I gambled what was for me a large sum, more than half my university pension that month, on a very simple simple proposition:- We…

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Are we seeing the resurrection of Mr. Brown?

Are we seeing the resurrection of Mr. Brown?

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Is he blamed unfairly for Labour’s defeat? There’s a new book out by some of the main figures associated with Ipsos-MORI, Robert Worcester, Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines and Mark Gill, which seeks to offer further analysis of last years general election. It’s called “Explaining Cameron’s Coalition” and whenever I get a review copy I’ll be able to discuss it in more detail. What’s being said about the book so far is that it suggests that the widespread perception that Gordon…

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