And there’s little change in the leader ratings The Ipsos-MORI political monitor for August is just out from Reuters and shows little change on July with the exception of Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems. The party sees its share move up 4 to 15% – a change that is in line with the ICM figures earlier in the week that had the yellows on 17%. The MORI 15% is the highest share from the pollster since last September. These figures from…
What if leader ratings are more predictive than VI? I’ve recounted here before how last March I gambled half my entire month’s pension on my strong belief that leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. Above is the polling that convinced me. Labour were comfortably ahead of the SNP in the voting intention (VI) polling and with the way seats are distributed look set for a substantial lead on seats in the Holyrood elections…
And Clegg’s party edges up to 17% For the second month running Britian’s most accurate pollster when tested against real national elections, ICM, is recording a one point lead for the Tories. It also has the Lib Dems on 17%. The survey for the Guardian, carried out from Friday until Sunday, has the Tories standing still on 37%, Labour on 36% and the Lib Dems moving up a point to 17%. The detail of the poll shows a sharp reduction…
New poll from Derby shows 13 point CON>LAB swing At the general election in May 2010 the East Midlands was one of the most crucial CON-LAB battle-grounds. Of the 46 seats at stake more than a quarter were gained by the Tories – It went from a pre-election notional split of CON 19: LAB 26: LD 1 to CON 31 and LAB 15. However the boundary changes work out it’s clear that this will be a keenly contested region once…
Are we seeing the return of tactical voting The latest poll of voting intentions in the South West of England is just out and has good news for the Lib Dems and UKIP but bad news for Labour. As can be seen from the chart Labour are down from 28% two months ago to 21% now though this is still six points up on what they did in the region at the general election. The Tories, meanwhile, are down 2…
For yesterday’s News International/YouGov daily poll those sampled were asked what they thought would happen at the next general election. Charts showing the responses of Labour/Tory/LDs are featured above. Interestingly exactly the same proportion of Tory and Labour voters, 77%, think that their party will win most seats. The yellows, meanwhile, are more divided but give it to the blues by 50 – 32 Which group has got this most right? @MikeSmithsonPB
Year Post-war elections with a change of government w 1951 Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright 1964 Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later 1970 Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority 1974F Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later 1979 Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright 1997 Outgoing CON government had…
Will October 2013 be the critical moment? At a briefing suggestion on the boundary review this lunch-time a leading Tory insider suggested that the most critical issue for the future of the coalition will be the vote on the new boundaries that is expected to take place in October 2013 (Note that the vote due then is not on the legislation which has already been agreed and enacted. Rather it on the the detailed proposals to redraw the electoral map….