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Category: General Election

As we await the news from the Crown Prosecution Service….

As we await the news from the Crown Prosecution Service….

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…YouGov points to a 1997-scale LABour landlside Update – Labour lead on 14: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 14th May CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 7%, (UKIP 8%); APP -42 y-g.co/JPOlcP — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2012 The YouGov LAB 45% CON 31% split is slightly better for Labour than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide when the voting wasLAB 44.4% CON 31.4% — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012 Tonight’s YouGov lead for Labour of 14% is the highestrecorded by the…

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Kellner says Tory victory the likeliest outcome

Kellner says Tory victory the likeliest outcome

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Peter Kellner says “I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015…” bit.ly/JuGAv2 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012 Interesting article on the latest ratings changes for Ed Miliband and David Cameron on the YouGov site by Peter Kellner. Looking back he notes:- “…In the months leading up to the 1970 election, Wilson’s ratings improved. By election day he was much better liked than Heath. Yet Heath won: Wilson’s mid-term travails had been too profound, and…

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Have the blues been pinning too much on geeky EdM?

Have the blues been pinning too much on geeky EdM?

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Is the Labour leader now looking like a winner? Earlier in the week the Speccie’s Fraser Nelson yesterday summed up neatly the Tory view of the next general election:- “Much of the Cameroon’s re-election hopes are pinned on the idea that their boss will trounce the geeky Ed Miliband. Nowadays, the argument goes, these ex-special advisers who have no charisma and alarming leftist policies just don’t win modern elections.” That view might have had some merit before George Osborne’s budget…

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Will banging on about the EU win the blues any converts?

Will banging on about the EU win the blues any converts?

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Or is it mostly current Tory voters who are concerned? The above chart is based on data from YouGov’s latest survey, taken on Tuesday this week, of the key issues when panel members are asked to tick three areas which concern them most. What’s shown above is the split amongst voters for the three main parties on a wide range of issues and the differences in priorities between the parties is quite marked. While concern about the economy is broadly…

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Was it the women who cost the Tories an overall majority?

Was it the women who cost the Tories an overall majority?

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Do the blues have a long-term problem? There is currently a great deal of speculation that the Conservatives are failing to appeal to women voters and the party will suffer electorally because of this. Tories are right to be worried about the gender gap, but not necessarily about what has happened since the last general election. At the general election, the Conservatives enjoyed a 10 point lead over Labour among men (38% to 28%), but only a 5 point lead…

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Is it really this gloomy for the blues in their marginals?

Is it really this gloomy for the blues in their marginals?

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Will Ashcroft’s new poll make uncomfortable reading? There’s another one of Michael Ashcroft’s massive polls out this morning which involved an overall sample of more than 13,000 in 41 marginal seats. They were all contacted by telephone – I assume by Populus the firm that has done much of Ashcroft’s research. Eight of the seats are Tory-held seats with the LDs in second place. The rest are Tory seats with Labour in second place. The key numbers are in the…

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Has Labour got a Lib Dem target problem?

Has Labour got a Lib Dem target problem?

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New English seats: LD first with LAB second MAJ % Birmingham Yardley BC 0.1 Norwich South BC 0.7 Willesden BC 1.1 Sheffield South West BC 4.4 Hornsey and Wood Green 7.7 Bermondsey and Waterloo BC 18.7 Bristol West BC 24.2 Where should the red team focus its efforts? Thanks to poster “oldLabour”” on the previous thread for going through the Anthony Wells list of 2010 notional results for England with the proposed new boundaries. Download Anthony’s full spreadsheet here. One…

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