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Category: General Election

No GDP boost yet for the Tories. LAB has double digit leads in all the latest polls

No GDP boost yet for the Tories. LAB has double digit leads in all the latest polls

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Just a third now blame Labour for the cuts Maybe it’s all too early but in the wake of last week’s news that Britain was out of recession and that the GDP was on the up again there were many who thought that the Tories would get a poll bost. Maybe that will happen but from three surveys from three totally separate pollsters using very different methodologies the signs are that Labour is enjoying a substantial lead. The latest phone…

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The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

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The rise of Tory toxicity? Ipsos-MORI data from 2007-2012 showing like and dislike of the Conservative party. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 Over the last couple of days there’s been a lot of focus on the Ipsos-MORI finding that more people now dislike David Cameron than like him. The same polling also produced findings on like and dislike of the Conservative party itself which were, perhaps, more worrying for the party. The chart above based on Ipsos-MORI…

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There is no hope of a deal on the Tory boundary bonus in exchange for state funding of parties

There is no hope of a deal on the Tory boundary bonus in exchange for state funding of parties

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Tomorrow’s proposals will not be implemented If the Tory back-bench rebellion on Lords reform had not happened in July then tomorrow would have been a big day for election watchers because of the publication of the revised electoral map for England. Rallings & Thrasher, Anthony Wells and others would have been going through the refined proposals to produce new projections of the impact of the plan. No doubt work will still be done but without the same urgency or expectation…

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Main points from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

Main points from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

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YouGov for the S Times has LAB lead back in double figures -so no CON conference bounce.CON 33%/LAB 43%/LD 10%/UKIP 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 Dave (-20% from -24%) gets small YouGov leadership bounce but still behind Ed (-14%).Clegg is -58% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 32% told YouGov that EdM had the most successful conference with 22% saying Cameron and 3% Clegg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 YouGov finds that the Tories…

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What price a Tory miracle!? Kellner says they need one to win an outright majority – the bookies make it a 3-1 shot

What price a Tory miracle!? Kellner says they need one to win an outright majority – the bookies make it a 3-1 shot

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I think that Kellner is right The chart shows the changing prices on the Conservative Party and Labour winning an overall majority at the next general election. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB

Five years on from the election that never was

Five years on from the election that never was

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Today, is the fifth anniversary of Gordon Brown’s decision not to hold an election in the autumn of 2007. It was a very interesting time for anyone interested in politics or betting. We had a Labour MP writing an article predicting ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority’ Labour spent a reported one million pounds for an election that never happened. Lord Kinnock’s intervention during the Labour conference, where he  explaining why he wanted Labour to…

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Ed Miliband gets closer in the “best Prime Minister” ratings

Ed Miliband gets closer in the “best Prime Minister” ratings

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Tweet EdM moves to within just 4% of Dave as “best PM” – his best ever position on this measure from YouGov — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2012 .At the start of 2012 Cameron led Miliband by 41% to 17% in YouGov’s best PM ratings. Today that’s 31% to 27% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2012 The Labour “don’t knows” are starting to support Ed We’ve now got the first “who would make the best Prime Minister” ratings…

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