Now that we’re just a little under two years from the General Election, I thought it might be useful to see how Dave and Ed compare to the predecessors as Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition, and used their net approval ratings with Ipsos-Mori In the first of this series, I’m starting with how Ed Miliband compares with his predecessors in terms of net ratings. A couple of notes about the data. 1) The figure from Margaret Thatcher…
Yes, you did read that headline correctly, it wasn’t a typo, I am going to discuss whether the Lib Dems can make net gains in parliamentary seats at the 2015 General election, which might seem odd, given the Lib Dems current travails in the polls. Since the start of April, of the 37 polls conducted by YouGov, the Lib Dems have only led UKIP in four of them, averaging 10.4% to UKIP’s 12.8% in that period. In the 16…
If the coalition is to end prematurely then it won’t be because the LDs quit. Clegg response.goo.gl/FRdUp twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 22, 2013 Tories are being told: There’ll be no supply & confidence In a speech this morning Nick Clegg’s making it very clear that his party will not quit the coalition ahead of the general election. So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg…
Ukip edge up 2 The changes are on the previous daily poll. After last night’s different pictures from the YouGov and Survation polls the latest one from the former, just published, sees the blues drop sharply and Ukip rising 2. The fall in the CON share of 4% is greater than the margin of error and this is either an outlier or an indication that we are seeing a new trend developing. The general theory is that voters punish parties…
UKIP’s surge has swamped parties like National Health Action. 14 mths ago Ashcroft polling had them at 18% to this twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013 Above is from some polling carried out for Michael Ashcroft in March 2012 on the possible impact that a NHS party could have on the next election. As can be seen the party chalked up 18% in the poll taking votes from LAB and the LDs and leaving the blues ahead. Those…
So why the huge difference? The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night. UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point. The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question….
What does this say about Dave’s current position Full details of the “Will Cameron face aleadership challenge?” betting from PaddyPower. bit.ly/I8PkIO See. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013 There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015. My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this…
@msmithsonpb getting some interesting spreads in polling now — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 19, 2013 The Tories are seen as being much more divided than LAB 73% tell the latest YouGov survey that the Tories are divided with just 10% saying united. 29% said LAB united to 36% saying divided — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013 In the Sunday Telelgraph/ICM Wisdom Index those polled are asked to predict the percentages for the four main parties. Note that…