— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 22, 2013
Tories are being told: There’ll be no supply & confidence
In a speech this morning Nick Cleggâ€™s making it very clear that his party will not quit the coalition ahead of the general election.
So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg is clearly not going to provide a supply and confidence arrangement should the Tories break the deal unilaterally.
As I have suggested before this means that the only way that the blues can get rid of the yellows is by risking an early general election. I don’t think that while Labour is ahead in the polls that that is going to happen.
The one alternative scenario I can envisage is Cameron being ditched as CON leader and his replacement, Hammond perhaps, getting a polling honeymoon.
If there was a change at the top then I think that that is likely. Whenever the Conservatives have booted out a leader they’ve had a boost in the polls.
The now loveless marriage has got another 23 months to go.
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