But why oh why no prompts for UKIP? Populus is back doing voting intention surveys which is good news for poll watchers. The firm built up a strong reputation with its series for the Times which was finally dropped by the paper last year. It has done a lot of work for the Conservative party and Michael Ashcroft over the years and, indeed, the former boss, Andrew Cooper, now works at Number 10. Now the firm has gone online and…
Courtesy of @MSmithsonPB this table from Electoral Calculus shows projections for UKIP seats at different levels pic.twitter.com/H2B22Nl0vY — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 14, 2013 Is it worth a punt? The significant feature of the weekend polling was that three of the 4 firms reporting had such large shares for UKIP – not much down on what we were seeing in the immediate aftermath of the party’s spectacular local elections performance in May ComRes online had them at 18%, Opinium at…
Today’s YouGov is now out and completes the polling picture for the weekend. The shares were CON 30, LAB 41, LD 10, UKIP 13. Labour’s 41% is the highest for eight weeks. This, and the other polls overnight, will be massively disappointing to the Tories who just a few days were feeling that they had turned the corner. They’d also had the EU referendum bill in the Commons. This chart shows all four polls overnight. Mike Smithson For the latest…
@MSmithsonPB Typical. You wait for a poll for ages, and then FOUR come along at once.. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 13, 2013 This is how each of the firms had it last time Tonight’s is a very unusual one for polls outside general election campaigns. By my reckoning all the main online firms have a got a survey coming out and we should have at least four polls. As well as the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times…
LAB activists celebrate in Brighton Pavilion overnight after taking seat from Greens in council council by-election pic.twitter.com/Fn70KY6FEo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 12, 2013 This must put in doubt Caroline Lucas’s future Could they end up with zero MPs? One of the most sensational results at GE2010 was the victory by the then Green party leader, Caroline Lucas, in Brighton Pavillion. This was a huge breakthrough for the party and followed years of work on the ground winning council seats…
The first polling shows the scale of the challenge In the first polling since Vince Cable’s Royal Mail sell-off announcement shows very substantial opposition right across the political spectrum. Even the Tory voters in the poll had more opposing the plan than supporting. With less than 22 months to go before the general election I wonder whether such a plan with so little support is a good idea. Certainly the arguments in favour need to be made more convincing if…
As ever we must not equate correlation with causation Once again the Sun has not disappointed us. Generally we have to wait until 6am for its daily YouGov poll to be released by the pollster. But if it is good for the blues then, like now, it is Tweeted early. The figures are above. The LAB share of 37% is the lowest for the party since May 29th and is 2 down on yesterday. The latest changes are all within…
EdM no longer on the danger list The Speccie's James Forsyth has a good summary of PMQS http://t.co/Vrgk69UawN pic.twitter.com/NnEl9MTGgr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 10, 2013 The blow up last week of the Falkirk selection contributed to EdM’s very poor start to July. He looked uncertain and less than self assured as he sought to deal with issues that opened up the whole question of Labour’s historical link with the trade union movement. This came at a time when the Labour’s…