— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 14, 2013
Is it worth a punt?
The significant feature of the weekend polling was that three of the 4 firms reporting had such large shares for UKIP – not much down on what we were seeing in the immediate aftermath of the party’s spectacular local elections performance in May
ComRes online had them at 18%, Opinium at 19% with Survation showing 20%. The online firm that was out of line was YouGov on 13%.
- Because we see ten or twenty times as many YouGov polls as surveys from other firms does not mean that their methodological approach to UKIP is right and the others wrong.
We are in a very new political environment and no one can say for certain or predict what’s going to happen.
Whatâ€™s impressed me is that UKIP support seems to be sticking with the purples even though they are getting much less media attention.
Conventional wisdom is that a lot of this will evaporate as we get closer to GE2015 as both the reds and blues seek to make this a battle for power between the two of them.
But is that really going to happen? Maybe – maybe not. Who knows?
Back in April at a local elections briefing with Professors Curtice, Rallings and Thrasher I suggested that UKIP could come out with more votes but far fewer seats than the LDs. That was broadly dismissed yet the outcome was that I was right.
This year UKIP has done well for me from a betting perspective. I got good prices on them beating first LAB in Eastleigh and then CON. They came second. On May 2nd my money was on them getting 100+ council gains – another winner.
I’ve got a big bet on with William Hill at 8/1 that UKIP will come out of GE2015 with more than one seat. That’s not available any more but there are other bets which are worth exploring.