The other big battle of GE2015 There are two groups voters who will decide GE2015 – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say they are voting LAB, and those who voted for Cameron’s Conservatives who now tell pollsters that they will vote UKIP. We have focused a fair bit on the former but less so on the latter. The big blue hope is that that when faced with the prospect of a Miliband-led LAB government they will…
This is from James Forsyth in the Spectator:- “…It is currently hard to see how either of the main parties can secure 40 per cent or more of the vote at the next general election. Indeed, there are senior figures inside Downing Street who believe that the Tories can’t realistically hope to garner this share of the vote in 2015. Instead, they argue that their most likely route to victory is to poll around 38 per cent themselves, keep the…
Even out of the spotlight their polling remains resilient Over the past month UKIP has been out of the news for all but about two days yet as the chart above shows this has hardly impacted on its YouGov poll numbers. All but one of the other online pollsters have them doing even better even though only one of them, Survation, includes the party in its main prompt. To signify UKIP with YouGov, for instance, you have to first tick…
The energy price issue is going to run. Cameron needs a more thought-out response pic.twitter.com/EeLkrZbjWO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 9, 2013 Ed Miliband exposes Tory confusion over whether to attack "Marxist" energy price controls, ape them or simply call them a gimmick #pmqs — Nick Robinson (@bbcnickrobinson) October 9, 2013 My PMQs verdict – http://t.co/8X72exW9yp – They weren't talking about Cameron's party conference speech … — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) October 9, 2013 Cameron needs a much better response than we…
Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K GE2015 line market makes it evens that LAB will win 308 MPs or more 325+ for maj pic.twitter.com/kBxFUuMAXU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 9, 2013 If they are only 17 short the Two Eds will try to go it alone Unlike all previous general elections over the past 20 years there are no spread betting prices which give a really good pointer to current betting sentiment. The great and brilliant Spreadfair spread market closed its doors just five years…
Today we saw the YouGov “best party” ratings on seven key policy areas. The economy one saw the CON lead increasing to 12%. Last month we had Ipsos-MORI asking broadly the same question with findings that were not too different from YouGov. The odd one out here is the Ashcroft marginal seats polling also published last month. Here the question was slightly different because the words “AND JOBS” were added to the best party on the economy question. No doubt…
Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K betting on UKIP's national vote share at GE2015 5-10% at 6/4 the favourite. See pic.twitter.com/Cd6jznFrzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 7, 2013 The smaller the UKIP vote the better it is for the blues With the vast bulk of the 2010 LDs who switched to LAB in the first year of the coalition sticking with their new allegiance the big decider at GE2015 looks set to be how UKIP perform in the key battlegrounds. As Lord Ashcroft’s polling…
How the landscape has changed since the May locals Today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times with changes on Thursday’s poll:- CON 33-2 LAB 38= LD 11+2 UKIP 13+3 It also sees quite strong backing from supporters of all parties for Ed Miliband in his battle with the Daily Mail. Looking forward the poll repeated a question last asked in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections – “What do you think is the most LIKELY result of the next…