This is from James Forsyth in the Spectator:-
“…It is currently hard to see how either of the main parties can secure 40 per cent or more of the vote at the next general election. Indeed, there are senior figures inside Downing Street who believe that the Tories canâ€™t realistically hope to garner this share of the vote in 2015. Instead, they argue that their most likely route to victory is to poll around 38 per cent themselves, keep the Labour vote down to 31 per cent or so and then hope that their targeting of marginal seats delivers a majority for them.
The problem with this, of course, is twofold: the switch to UKIP discussed on the last thread and, of course, the massive switch of 2010 LDs to LAB which happened in the first year of the coalition.
Most of the latter, according to all the latest polls, have remained and they represent 6-7% of the total number of likely voters.
Unless this group starts to move back to the LDs and away from LAB it is hard to see how the blues can win a majority. LAB got 30% last time. Add in the LD switchers and you are into the mid-30s.
- To plan on the basis that LAB can be held to a mere 31% is pure wishful thinking.
The best Tory hopes are that it can attract back most of the CON>UKIP switchers and that the 100 or so MPs who won seats for the first time in 2010 will enjoy an incumbency bonus.
What polling there has been in the marginals suggests a disproportionate swing to LAB.
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