Browsed by
Category: General Election

2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

Comments 0 Comment

December 2012 compared with December 2013 The chart says it all. There has been almost no change in prices on the Betfair exchange on the outcome of GE2015. The prices on a CON and LAB majority have edged down a bit with no overall majority moving up a notch. The big differences between now than then have been the resilience UKIP in the polls and the fact that the election is now little more than 16 months away. Labour’s polling…

Read More Read More

The politics of interest rates: New YouGov poll finds more saying a rise would make them better off than worse off

The politics of interest rates: New YouGov poll finds more saying a rise would make them better off than worse off

Comments 0 Comment

Times leads on YouGov poll on interest rates pic.twitter.com/Y5NsbeCb3a — PolPics (@PolPics) December 26, 2013 But is the headline just wishful thinking from the Times With the possiblility of interest rates increasing in 2014 the Times is leading on polling that suggests that more pople would benefit than would lose out. This certainly runs contrary to the general media narrative that low interests rates are a “good thing”. Maybe this is because those who work in the media are more…

Read More Read More

Why I think that UKIP is being understated in many polls

Why I think that UKIP is being understated in many polls

Comments 0 Comment

How the Populus party ID weightings worked against #UKIP in today's Populus poll When the views of 208 became 21 pic.twitter.com/yxpoNWhQlf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2013 Using a 2010 model might not be right for 2014 The publication last week of the latest round of the Bown-funded constituency polling set off a debate about methodology with efforts to attack what Survation had done. The main objections were that the firm wasn’t using what have become standard approaches to ensure…

Read More Read More

The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West and Brighton Pavillion

The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West and Brighton Pavillion

Comments 0 Comment

PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T constituency odds have Respect losing Bradford W and the Greens Brighton Pavilion pic.twitter.com/QziJonTcDd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 21, 2013 @MSmithsonPB Greens immensely unpopular here – citywide poll had Labour with a 17% lead, Greens lost a by election in Pavilion on 11% swing — Cllr Warren Morgan (@warrenmorgan) December 21, 2013 Over the holiday period I’m planning to look at some of the constituency betting markets that we have up. There are now quite a few of…

Read More Read More

Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

Comments 0 Comment

The Tories have yet to record a lead in any opinion poll this year. The last year this happened was 2002. — Simon (@simonk133) December 19, 2013 I saw this Tweet earlier and thought I’d check it out. It is correct. At some point in every single year from 2003 to 2012 the Tories recorded at least one lead. On two occasions they’ve been level-pegging and this week they got within 2%. What this means electorally we’ll have to wait…

Read More Read More

Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

Comments 0 Comment

CON doing better than 2012 In the summer PaddyPower attracted a lot of betting interest with a new market on whether the Tories would over-take Labour in at least one poll before the end of the year. With the pollster packing up for the holidays at the weekend there are just two surveys left to go and unless there is something dramatic it looks as though those who bet at prices tighter than evens are going to have to say…

Read More Read More

Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

Comments 0 Comment

Following publication of our latest four constituency polls for Alan Bown earlier this week, there has been considerable public discussion of the methodology we used for these polls, including specific criticisms from Anthony Wells of YouGov, Lord Ashcroft and an article by John Rentoul which lists a number of criticisms passed to him by “a Conservative source”. I would like to use this opportunity to address these criticisms and provide a robust explanation for our choices of methodology. In his…

Read More Read More

Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

Comments 0 Comment

PaddyPower has put up some more GE2015 single constituency markets including the Cornish seats of Cambourne Redruth which the Tories took off the Lib Dems in 2010. The latest prices are CON 2/5: LD 5/2: LAB 8/1 and UKIP 33/1 As highlighted by Stuart Dickson and others on a previous threads the UKIP option is a good value bet. When it went up it was priced at 40/1 – odds that quickly moved in. What makes this seat particularly interesting…

Read More Read More