Browsed by
Category: General Election

You’ve got to drop to 89 on LAB’s target list to find a seat that Tories are betting favourites to retain

You’ve got to drop to 89 on LAB’s target list to find a seat that Tories are betting favourites to retain

Comments 0 Comment

Bookie prices Battersea GE2015 http://t.co/2GdLb7TyQc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 4, 2014 Why’s national GE2015 betting so different from the constituencies? How I miss the commons seats spread betting markets. This is the first election for two decades where this form of betting has not operated. Here the number of seats the parties will get are traded like stocks and shares and the more you are right the more money you make. Alas the reverse was true as well. The…

Read More Read More

Some polling news for Mr Gove to ponder: YouGov finds that LAB has a 41pc lead amongst teachers

Some polling news for Mr Gove to ponder: YouGov finds that LAB has a 41pc lead amongst teachers

Comments 0 Comment

Before GE2010 Ipsos-MORI had LAB 11% ahead with teachers I’ve now got full details of the YouGov poll of teachers which was carried out for the NUT. I should stress that this is a representative sample of teachers in England and Wales with the YouGov using its estabished polling panel. What is strking is how different this compares with an IPSOS-MORI poll of teachers carried out in the led up to GE2010. It found CON 29/LAB 40/LD 23. UKIP barely…

Read More Read More

It would be playing into UKIP’s hands to bar Farage from the debates

It would be playing into UKIP’s hands to bar Farage from the debates

Comments 0 Comment

What message would this send to those already turned off by politics? Judging by comments coming out of the Miliband camp it appears that Labour has decided that it would not work in their favour if they were seen to be black-balling Nigel Farage from the GE2015 leaders TV debates. I’m sure that Clegg and the Lib Dems will take a similar approach so that if Farage isn’t there it will be blamed on the Cameron team. UKIP, of course,…

Read More Read More

The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

The monthly projection from Electoral Calculus sees the LAB majority down from 80 seats to 78

Comments 0 Comment

Electoral Calculus projection, based on current polls, makes a LAB maj a 78% chance See chart pic.twitter.com/nGlwZunxYt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2013 It’s LAB 364(+106)/CON 235(-72)/LD 23(-34)/UKIP 0/NAT 9(=) The latet monthly projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus sees a slight falling off of the projected LAB majority, The caluclation is based on applying Martin’s polling computation to his seat model and assuming a uniform national swing. The only changes in his polling average are CON+1 and UKIP-1…

Read More Read More

The 2010 Lib Dems who have switched to Labour are more likely to be public sector workers than any other voter group

The 2010 Lib Dems who have switched to Labour are more likely to be public sector workers than any other voter group

Comments 0 Comment

On New Year’s eve I posted the first part of my look at 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour and reported polling that showed that they were more certain to vote and less likely to change their minds than other groups. This morning from page 263 of the same detailed Lord Ashcroft polling I’m highlighting the percentage working in the public sector. As can be seen from the chart there are more LD switchers to LAB amongst…

Read More Read More

What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

Comments 0 Comment

They are more enthusiastic about EdM than existing LAB voters On one of the threads yesterday there were a number of questions asking what is known about the group of voters who could put a CON majority beyond reach – 2010 LD voters who now say they will go Labour. The problem is that almost all the polling data we have doesn’t show this segment separately – so while it is possible to extrapolate we cannot get reliable numbers. The…

Read More Read More

GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

Comments 0 Comment

Tactical voting posters pic.twitter.com/Pi7uDkosxk — PolPics (@PolPics) December 29, 2013 The campaigns will be about best way of keeping Miliband or the Tories out A key part of the Tory effort to remain at Number 10 will be to get over to CON-UKIP defectors that in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds the best way of stopping Ed Miliband becoming next PM is by them voting with the blues rather than the purples. In a select number of seats UKIP will try…

Read More Read More

It’s 2014 prediction time: Will it be another year when the Tories fail to secure a lead?

It’s 2014 prediction time: Will it be another year when the Tories fail to secure a lead?

Comments 0 Comment

How many times will ICM, last to report CON ahead, have one in 2014? On how many occasions during 2014 will the Guardian’s monthly ICM phone poll report a CON lead 11-12 polls 9-10 polls 7-8 polls 5-6 polls 3-4 polls 1-2 polls NONE      This from March 2012 was last to have CON ahead Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004 Follow @MSmithsonPB