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Category: General Election

Post election “how did you vote” poll finds it was the oldies and men what won it for Dave

Post election “how did you vote” poll finds it was the oldies and men what won it for Dave

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Post election poll by GQR, LAB's pollster, for the TUC pic.twitter.com/UmlhhEVVt5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2015 GQR's post GE15 poll finds that CON had just about twice as many 55+ voters as LAB pic.twitter.com/8dNJ94yauf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2015 GQR, Labour’s pollster, has just published a post May 7th survey it carried out for the TUC asking people how they voted. The main findings are above and show a big lead for CON amongst men and…

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It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

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Tim Smith Univ of Nottingham The vote shares of first time incumbents held up the most A short paper headed “Lib Dem incumbency advantage persists but fails to prevent disaster” by Tim Smith of the University of Nottingham has just been published and provides valuable evidence of the power of first time incumbency. This happens when someone who won for the first time at the previous elections seeks to defend the seat. The table above shows the very different performances…

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A guest slot by Lucian on the Northern Ireland dimension – the re-emergence of the UUP

A guest slot by Lucian on the Northern Ireland dimension – the re-emergence of the UUP

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BBC News Northern Ireland summary Now the focus is on next year’s Assembly elections There is little doubt that the UUP will regard the general election as a success. They had no seats, they now have two. Fermanagh and South Tyrone was won by Tom Elliott after a deal was struck with the DUP and other unionist parties. South Antrim was taken from the DUP’s William McCrea by Danny Kinahan. So the party has removed the horror of not having…

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As the post GE15 polling debate continues SPIN’s Aidan Nutbrown asks “Are Elections Random?”

As the post GE15 polling debate continues SPIN’s Aidan Nutbrown asks “Are Elections Random?”

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The outcome showed why punters should expect the unexpected Albert Einstein famously said: “God doesn’t play dice”. He was wrong. Everything has a random element to it. I aim to board the 8.08 train each morning but sometimes for unforeseen reasons I miss it. And sometimes for unforeseen reasons it doesn’t appear. This uncertainty is precisely why betting is fun, and why bookies exist. It is a given that sports events have large degrees of uncertainty to them. A horse…

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Labour should not be too pessimistic about their chances of taking power in 2020

Labour should not be too pessimistic about their chances of taking power in 2020

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The Conservative Party will be fighting the next general election without their strongest asset, David Cameron. There’s some pessimism from Labour supporters about their chances at the next election. For example, Jon Cruddas in today’s Observer says “this could be the greatest crisis the Labour party has ever faced” whilst some are suggesting, that Sir Keir Starmer, the former Director of Public Prosecutions, and someone who has been an MP for a little over week, is the man to save Labour,…

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GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration with Polling Matters

GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration with Polling Matters

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One of the great developments of the campaign has been the appearance of many new online resources for analysis and discussion. One of these has been the excellent Polling Matters created by Keiran Pedley of pollster GFK. This afternoon, in collaboration with Polling Matters, we have a special podcast featuring some of the key players. Keiran spent the last week speaking to several leading experts in the polling industry including Professor John Curtice, Lord Foulkes, Damian Lyons Lowe of Survation,…

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David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome

David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome

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This was the biggest disaster in nearly a century? The Lib Dems and their predecessors have been through some bad times over the years but what faces them now is their worst crisis in nearly a century. It is worse than the splits over Ireland under Gladstone that ended their pre-eminent position in the country; it is worse than the division between Asquith and Lloyd George, which ended them as a party of government; it is worse than the post-merger…

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The GE2020 challenge for LAB: Unless its Scottish losses can be reversed it needs a 12% lead for a majority

The GE2020 challenge for LAB: Unless its Scottish losses can be reversed it needs a 12% lead for a majority

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The challenge facing LAB by John Curtice. 12% lead required for majority pic.twitter.com/haSbQSY02w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2015 Within a few weeks of each general election Professor John Curtice and other leading psephologists start producing the numbers that will shape the next general election. The first one is in the Mail piece – what LAB would need to do to secure a majority next time. Before last week’s election Curtice had said that the Tories would require a…

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