The challenge facing LAB by John Curtice. 12% lead required for majority pic.twitter.com/haSbQSY02w
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2015
Within a few weeks of each general election Professor John Curtice and other leading psephologists start producing the numbers that will shape the next general election.
The first one is in the Mail piece – what LAB would need to do to secure a majority next time.
Before last week’s election Curtice had said that the Tories would require a 7% lead for a majority depending on how well they performed against the Lib Dems. As it was they did far better on that last measure than just about anybody predicted and the Cameron was able to secure a majority with a GB lead on votes of 6.7%.
It is a combination of the near wipe-out of the Lib Dems in blue facing seats in England and Wales and the developments in Scotland that make Labour’s challenge look so daunting.
This is the context in which Labour’s search for a new leader is taking place. Essentially Miliband’s successor needs the electoral magic that only Tony Blair has ever had in the entire history of the party.