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The time’s running out for Le Pen Latest betting on the French Presidential elections has Macron moving to a 90% chance with the far right Marine Le Pen on 10%. There is not much time left for Le Pen’s hoped for surge to bring about victory. French law imposes a black out on published polls after Friday and the election takes place on Sunday closing at 1900 BST. What is extraordinary about the polling is how all of them have…

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But he still leads by wide margin The French election comes to its final round next weekend and the polls are showing a slight edge towards Le Pen though it is still very hard to see a pathway to victory for her. What is intriguing is this Wikipedia analysis of how second round votes are splitting by what people did on the first round. Clearly there are lot of voters yet to make up their minds and this is giving…

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Wikipedia Betting on last Sunday’s winner looks like free money After Sunday’s first round of voting in France all eyes are now on the second round that takes place on Sunday May 7th. Hypothetical matchups before Sunday had shown that Macron would have a big lead. The first post 2nd round polls, the ones featured above, still have him with a big margin but nothing like on the scale of what we were seeing before Sunday. This reflects the very…

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So Le Pen isn’t going to be another Trump As it has turned out the polling in the French presidential election has proved to be pretty accurate. Macron has, as I write, 23.9% of the first round votes with Le Pen on 21.4%. The Betfair exchange betting now splits 88% to Macron with to 12% Marine Le Pen. It is now very hard to envisage the circumstances that have anybody other than the young former investment banker as the next…

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?? #Presidentielle2017 ? Estimation Ipsos / @SopraSteria_fr à 20h du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour pic.twitter.com/o6T4qBMGSq — Ipsos France (@IpsosFrance) April 23, 2017 Looks like the French have lost that lovin’ Fillon But given that both François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are fewer than 2 points behind Le Pen, and we’ve not had any votes counted yet, don’t start spending winnings yet or write off those losses. Though if this exit poll is accurate I expect Macron to win…

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Head to head: Fillon-LePen Head to head: Melenchon-LePen Head to head: Macron-LePen Today the people of France are going to the polls in the first round of the Presidential Election. The polling stations close at 1900 BST and we should get the first exit polls shortly afterwards. If the exit polling is close then we might see some delay before any figures are published. Unlike the UK where there is one single exit poll in France several media outlets have…

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