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Category: EU Referendum

If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

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Just 15 months ago – happier days for Mr Farage and Mr Carswell pic.twitter.com/HMdFTxPvsZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2015 Nigel Farage on Douglas Carswell: "We have got one person going round the country giving the impression UKIP is split – that can’t go on." — Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) December 18, 2015 UKIP could be about to become a ZERO MPs party The morning has been dominated by Douglas Carswell’s comments in a BBC interview about his leader, Nigel…

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Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

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An unusual voting question approach was used so difficult to make comparisons @LordAshcroft #EUref poll didn't ask simple question but this – pic.twitter.com/XEEvw4dWyV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The past 24 hours has seen a glut of EU referendum polling with the latest, overnight, being a 20k sample online poll from Lord Ashcroft. Lord Ashcroft’s post on the survey, linked to above, is well worth reading because it goes into far more than just referendum voting intention. On…

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The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

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Revised table of latest #EURef polling showing the 2 phone polls published this morning. pic.twitter.com/uk9ilG1Kb9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The oldies seem to respond most differently on the phone This morning we’ve got the EU referendum phone polls for two months and as can be seen in the table, they have numbers which are totally out of line with with all the online surveys. First out was ComRes with its poll for Open Europe followed by Ipsos…

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As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up

As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up

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Based on this it is too close to call Above is my latest table of EURef polls showing the two that were published overnight from Survation and ICM. Both show LEAVE making progress. What we really need are some more phone polls which have suggested a very different outcome from the online surveys which predominate. There are three December phone polls to come and I’m hoping that ComRes, ICM for the Guardian and Ipsos-MORI will have included referendum voting intentions…

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The EU Referendum: Douglas Carswell’s absolutely right about this ad even if it was meant to be joke

The EU Referendum: Douglas Carswell’s absolutely right about this ad even if it was meant to be joke

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https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/673591195986206721 This sort of thing can be thrown back at referendum campaigners When I tweeted the above ad from Leave.EU UKIP’s MP, Douglas Carswell, was one of the first to respond. His annoyance was correct. This is a serious campaign with so much at stake and the argument should be based on facts not made up statements like in the ad even if it was meant to be a joke. In the coming months, and perhaps years, before we finally…

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11 weeks of EURef polling and all but two of the surveys online

11 weeks of EURef polling and all but two of the surveys online

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We urgently need more mode variation Above is my latest spreadsheet of all the recent EURef polls. As can be seen the battle is quite tight with, by a smidgeon, the edge at the moment being to REMAIN. In the period covered by the table there have been nine different GE2020 phone polls yet just two of them have included the EURef voting question. Why do they go to all the cost and expense of phone polling and don’t seek…

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The Lords vote to allow 16-17 year olds to take part in #EUREF

The Lords vote to allow 16-17 year olds to take part in #EUREF

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House of Lords has voted to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote in the upcoming referendum on EU membership #EUref — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 18, 2015 Govt defeated by 82 votes as peers allow 16 & 17 year olds to take part in EU referendum — James Landale (@BBCJLandale) November 18, 2015 What’s this going to do to the timing and eventual outcome? Once again the upper house votes against the government

Antifrank looks at where the EU referendum will be won and lost

Antifrank looks at where the EU referendum will be won and lost

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Picture: The classic 90s game, Lemmings. Referenda are odd affairs.  Two sides, both of which are passionately invested in the success or failure of the proposition, seek to woo disproportionate numbers of far less interested voters to their respective causes.  Votes are counted, not marked out of ten for enthusiasm.  Each side must resist the temptation to make arguments that fascinate those who are already-engaged but which make the barely engaged switch off. Activists on both sides of the EU…

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