Embed from Getty Images Both Theresa and Boris wanted to lose the referendum If Leave had gone down to a narrow defeat, Boris Johnson would have had all the power with none of the responsibility. He would also have had a senior Cabinet role for a year or two, and a chance to prove himself at that level. There’d be no immediate crisis to manage, and any trouble from Europe – and there would surely have been some –…
Michael Dent the creator of PoliticsOdds.bet, a site which tracks and graphs betting prices on political events, looks at the EU Referendum in-play betting At 11:36pm on June 23rd, just before the first result was declared, the market was just short of 90% confident of a Remain vote. So much for markets knowing best – the market was wrong, and staggeringly confident in its wrongness. So how did we get from there to settling the market for Leave? What follows is an attempt…
How the drama unfolded YouGov on the day survey (NOT an exit poll) being published on Sky News at 10pm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 YouGov on the day poll has REMAIN 4% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 REMAIN now 93% chance on Betfair — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/746087771509497860 REMAIN now 90% chance on Betfair — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 Ipsos MORI has REMAIN 8% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…
Richard Nabavi on the post-BREXIT world You know the drill. It’s a scenario which has played out many times in countries around the world, sometimes peaceably, sometimes with much violence: the old elite is overthrown, an iconoclastic movement tears down the old structures and grabs power. Regimes and institutions which looked as though they would last for ever are suddenly overthrown, with breath-taking speed. What seemed permanent vanishes in front of you. Old certainties no longer apply: suddenly, a new…
It seems many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/746318754246762496 https://twitter.com/tmlbk/status/746327994285842432 Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt — Ben Thompson (@BenThompsonTV) June 24, 2016 Warning. Vehicle reversing. pic.twitter.com/sYTlzIzjNa — Sam (@sjcstuff) June 24, 2016 UK now predicted to lose its triple A credit rating. You know, the one we supposedly endured austerity to keep. So that was worth it — gabyhinsliff…
Remember the final polls. pic.twitter.com/fJyfReJMZT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2016 Once the final polls came our I wrote that if LEAVE did it it would be as big a polling disaster as GE2015. In fact then none of the final polls were in range. At least this time two of them, TNS and Opinium, got very close and were showing LEAVE leads. The latter is very much on a roll. It was the most accurate online poll at…
Remain’s perfomance so far is not consistent with a Remain victory It is literally 50-50 as things stand. Problem for Remain is that if they’re going to win they needed to be ahead at this stage — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 24, 2016 ITV News is forecasting 75% probability of Brexit, of UK voting to leave EU. This is huge. — Robert Peston (@Peston) June 24, 2016 @chrishanretty has updated his forecast and given Remain a 0% chance of success…
Basildon Leave 38 pts ahead, vs 25 pts expected if it's 50-50 nationally. Out of 20 results only 2 have Remain doing better than expected. — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) June 24, 2016 Remain blame game now in full swing – usually a reliable indicator of defeat. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) June 24, 2016 Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in – https://t.co/dpPxRbJ5Ko — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) June 24, 2016 Brexiteers think Labour are conceding Wales —…