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Category: EU Referendum

If Sunderland is representative of Labour areas in England, then I’m calling this for Leave

If Sunderland is representative of Labour areas in England, then I’m calling this for Leave

Sunderland, #EUref result: Remain: 38.7% (51,930) Leave: 61.3% (82,394) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 23, 2016 We are one good Leave result away from crossover on Betfair pic.twitter.com/ieKK8FRJJM — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 "We are much tighter than we thought at the beginning of the night" @philipjcowley says after Sunderland result. — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 23, 2016 2.4 per cent fall in sterling in just seconds…. https://t.co/nAdXDVRDNX — Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) June 23, 2016

No wonder Nigel Farage is unconceding – Big moves on Betfair – Update Newcastle not good for Remain

No wonder Nigel Farage is unconceding – Big moves on Betfair – Update Newcastle not good for Remain

Sources suggesting Sunderland might be as high as 62% for Leave, that would be quite something — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016 Leave odds tumbling on Betfair pic.twitter.com/7nq1y7IPfe — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 Newcastle not good for Remain pic.twitter.com/yrYK4Jxekb — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 TSE

As the polls close Nigel Farage says Remain will edge it but turnout is expected to be high

As the polls close Nigel Farage says Remain will edge it but turnout is expected to be high

Unsurprisingly Leave have hit 15 on Betfair but does high turnout favour Leave? UKIP leader Nigel Farage says it "looks like 'Remain' will edge it" #EUref — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 23, 2016 . @Arron_banks on Nigel Farage's early concession of a Remain win: "He doesn't know anything." pic.twitter.com/1ijwSgUBFY — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) June 23, 2016 YouGov #EURef on the day poll: Remain 52% Leave 48%. Not an exit poll. This type of poll was fairly out at GE2015…

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Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the polls – a possible explanation

Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the polls – a possible explanation

Barely a day has gone by in the past few months when I have not been asked why the referendum betting odds were/are so out of line with the polling. Surely , it has been said, that if the polls have it level pegging or even LEAVE leads then why has REMAIN stayed as such a strong odds-on favourite. I usually try to answer that punters are taking a much broader view than just the voting polling taking into account,…

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