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Category: EU Referendum

Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out this year

Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out this year

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He’s at his best when his back is against the wall As a reaction to Cameron’s dramatic admission on his family offshore investments last night in the interview with Robert Peston several bookies starting offering odds on him failing to survive the year as prime minister. Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are making this a 3/1 chance. Given the nature of the way the information eventually came out bit by bit there is no doubt that the prime minister has…

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Ups and downs. The referendum’s impact on individual politicians

Ups and downs. The referendum’s impact on individual politicians

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The nation’s politicians are consumed by the referendum debate. 23 June is seen as a momentous day. But politics will not stop on 24 June. Who has the campaign benefited so far? And, just as interestingly, who is on the wane? A Good Campaign Jeremy Corbyn. Simply by doing not very much, he has found that the heat has come off him to a large extent.  The public is being reminded that Labour is not the only divided party and…

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Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd

Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd

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Looking at the detail by local authority area Yougov have produced a very useful map that ranks local authority areas across Great Britain by levels of Euroscepticism. . Euroscepticism is not necessarily identical to supporting Brexit, but one can assume that there is a close correlation between the two. What does the map show us, and how does it compare to polling data? 1. There is a clear correlation between voting for right wing parties (Conservatives and UKIP) and support…

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How Port Talbot could give us a pointer to the EURef

How Port Talbot could give us a pointer to the EURef

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Will UKIP fare well in Wales? In the hot-house of political reporting and comment, individual stories invariably seem more important at the time than they subsequently turn out to be. The future of the Port Talbot steel works is likely to be one such case. Although the closure or even mothballing of the plant would be disastrous for the town and the people who live and work there, for most of Wales – never mind the country beyond – the…

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Why from an ad man’s perspective REMAIN’s absolutely right to go negative

Why from an ad man’s perspective REMAIN’s absolutely right to go negative

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PB’s Roger on the messages with the most potency The multinational Procter and Gamble has long been considered the most effective advertiser in the world. They had one simple formula which they used throughout their product range. They began their ads by showing a problem which was followed by a demonstration of how and why their product was the most effective way of dealing with it. ‘Bad breath…….so no one wants to talk to you?’ ‘Don’t worry help is on it’s…

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Trying to work out who will turn out in the referendum of June 23rd

Trying to work out who will turn out in the referendum of June 23rd

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New study tries to explain why phone and online polls are giving different EUref results As we get closer to the referendum there’s a lot of effort going on to try look at the polling more closely so we don’t end with another GE2015. The results of a Populus/Number Cruncher Politics study on the difference between the online and phone surveys was looked at on Newsnight last night and I’m hoping it will be possible to link to the actual…

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The referendum polling is getting much tighter. Gone are the double digit phone poll leads

The referendum polling is getting much tighter. Gone are the double digit phone poll leads

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After a months of very large REMAIN leads in the phone polls we’ve now had three in the past week which are all showing that the race is getting much tighter. Ipsos and ComRes have 8% REMAIN leads while Survation has it at 11% – all very similar. At the same time there hasn’t been much movement in the online polls so we are, perhaps, seeing a level on convergence as we get closer to the day – on 12…

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The EU referendum: A battle between the social classes

The EU referendum: A battle between the social classes

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Z The most affluent are more solidly for IN The above breakdown is from the latest ComRes referendum poll and shows how different socio-economic groups responded to the 16 word referendum question. The pattern shown is very similar in most referendum polls. The more affluent you are, the higher the social class in which you are categorised, the more likely you are to say that you want to remain within the EU. This applies in both phone and online polls…

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