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Category: EU Referendum

CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU statements/claims are trusted

CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU statements/claims are trusted

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Why LEAVE has to undermine the PM It is said, though I have no independent verification, that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance. With Corbyn now coming off the fence which should encourage the Labour IN vote current CON voters are a major battleground between IN and OUT. The polls vary but all have LEAVE ahead amongst this voting segment but the…

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YouGov: Tory voters most ready to change EURef vote when asked what they’d do if BREXIT would cost them £100 a year

YouGov: Tory voters most ready to change EURef vote when asked what they’d do if BREXIT would cost them £100 a year

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There’s a new YouGov poll out which has REMAIN back with in lead from the level pegging. Actual figures are 40% to 39% so all within margin of errot. At the end of the survey YouGov posed this question. “Imagine that if the UK left the European Union the standard of living would be lower and people would on average be £100 a year worse off. In those circumstances, how would you vote in the referendum: Should the United Kingdom…

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Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

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Worry about the unknown is a great vote driver In the 2010-2015 period I repeatedly suggested that a good guide to the general election outcome was YouGov’s “who is responsible for the cuts” tracker. Throughout the entire five year period Labourwas blamed more than others and so it turned out to be. For the referendum on June 23rd I have been looking around for another possible tracker and believe I have found one. It is featured in the chart above…

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Ahead of EURef the Electoral Commission turns to Facebook to persuade younger people to get on the electoral roll

Ahead of EURef the Electoral Commission turns to Facebook to persuade younger people to get on the electoral roll

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Why reaching young voters is so important for REMAIN which does well amongst the young pic.twitter.com/0DJc0P2CW7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2016 Getting more young people to vote on June 23rd could be decisive Facebook and the Electoral Commission have teamed up to pesuade voters across the UK to register to vote in the May 5th elections as well as EURef on June 23rd. A reminder will be added to the news feed of people eligible to register to…

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The BREXIT Referendum: The advertising industry is under starters orders

The BREXIT Referendum: The advertising industry is under starters orders

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PB’s Roger on the coming battle Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores. They can be pitching for the anti smoking account at the same time as they’re shooting the new Hamlet commercial. Think what would have happened in 1979 if Labour had called the Saatchis first. We wouldn’t have had ‘LABOUR ISN’T WORKING’ and the former Tory Party chairman might now be a Labour peer. So when I heard Adam and Eve/DDB were handling the REMAIN account it struck…

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Because CON members are overwhelmingly for LEAVE doesn’t mean that party supporters are the same

Because CON members are overwhelmingly for LEAVE doesn’t mean that party supporters are the same

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The Tory voter split will be crucial According to the regular ConHome surveys and a YouGov CON members poll last month the blue team’s members are solidly for LEAVE and this impacts on perceptions of how Tory voters will split on June 23rd. But this isn’t supported by the pulling evidence that we have. Above is a chart based on the LEAVE REMAIN split shown in five recent polls from leading pollsters. Yes all of them have LEAVE in the…

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REMAIN moves back up a touch after busy day on the referendum markets

REMAIN moves back up a touch after busy day on the referendum markets

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Renewed confidence in Cameron? REMAIN edges back up notch on Betfair #EUref market after day in which £106k matched pic.twitter.com/TEkDi00MUM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2016 £107,798 of bets matched on Betfair alone Where the political betting activity has been today pic.twitter.com/rFCWDU7hAK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2016