The Tory voter split will be crucial
According to the regular ConHome surveys and a YouGov CON members poll last month the blue team’s members are solidly for LEAVE and this impacts on perceptions of how Tory voters will split on June 23rd.
But this isn’t supported by the pulling evidence that we have. Above is a chart based on the LEAVE REMAIN split shown in five recent polls from leading pollsters. Yes all of them have LEAVE in the lead but the split is much closer than it being suggested.
I have not included the latest ComRes in the chart because there was no breakdown by General Election voting intention in its March poll. Almost all the previous polls that it has done have had more Conservative voters supporting remain then leave.
All of this matters because of David Cameron who has become something of an issue in the last week and a half. He is notional leader of the campaign to stay in the EU and perceptions of him, I believe, might have a big impact on the final outcome. This will be particularly so amongst those who voted CON last May.