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Category: EU Referendum

Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift in the two main parties

Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift in the two main parties

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Guest Post by Mortimer Summer 2016 could prove a watershed moment in modern British politics. April and early-May have already seen the incumbent leadership of the English Conservatives shown up in comparison to Ruth Davidson’s success north of the border, and the old guard of an apparently gaffe-obsessed Labour Party cheered by victory in London yet criticised by the triumphant Sadiq Khan. More pressure on the Conservative leadership is likely if, as the polls currently indicate, the referendum on June…

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Almost all the online polls when tested against real results last Thursday overstated UKIP

Almost all the online polls when tested against real results last Thursday overstated UKIP

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As first revealed on #newsnight, online polls seem to be overestimating support for #Brexit https://t.co/zgTmJPLs7Z pic.twitter.com/Wahc54HTFc — Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) May 10, 2016 This looks like a good pointer to referendum polling Well done to Matt Singh for picking up this – how in the range of elections last Thursday the online pollsters across the board appeared to be over-stating UKIP. His analysis covers the London as well as the Scottish and Welsh elections. The details are in the chart…

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Urgent question. David Cameron’s big mistake so far

Urgent question. David Cameron’s big mistake so far

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As with any bureaucratic body, the EU pulses to a rhythm of regular meetings.  The EU being a more complex body than most, multiple cycles of meetings are sinuously interwoven.  Most prominently, at least four times a year, the Prime Ministers of the 28 member countries convene for the European Council.  The most vital business of the day is dealt with at these summits. Anyone with experience of meetings knows that to control the agenda is to control the meeting….

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Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

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A pointer to the EU Referendum? One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections. But look at the charts above from the final London Mayoral polling by YouGov and Opinium,…

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At GE2015 the big picture from online polls was that LAB was leading but CON was well ahead in phone surveys

At GE2015 the big picture from online polls was that LAB was leading but CON was well ahead in phone surveys

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A pointer to EURef polling? With the huge split between online and phone polls that we are seeing for the referendum it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how the two modes did during the official GE2015 campaign period. The chart could not be more clear. Throughout the campaign the big picture from phone polls was that the Tories had the edge while with internet polls it was Labour. We should note that being lumped in with all the other online…

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If Zac loses London and the Brexiters fail it will say a lot about the declining influence of the press

If Zac loses London and the Brexiters fail it will say a lot about the declining influence of the press

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If the London mayoral race and the BREXIT referendum go according to the betting then it will be very much against what most of the press has been promoting. The Sadiq Khan campaign for the Mayoralty has to overcome a strong media bias in favour of Zac Goldsmith. The above from yesterday’s Mail on Sunday is typical. The capital’s main newspaper, the Standard, has been very anti-Khan and has been more than willing to echo the Goldsmith campaign efforts to…

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Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life

Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life

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These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum Senior Cameron aide asked rebels at Tory away day if moving Osborne would "save PM" in the event of a Brexit vote. See Sunday Times — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) April 30, 2016 Typo alert – The below tweet I think he means Foreign Sec, I hope Tory whip has also been asking Eurosceptics whether moving Osborne to foreign sex would help calm civil war. —…

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