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Category: Ed Miliband

If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

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YouGov monthly averages 2013-15 What kept him in place were LAB’s good voting intention numbers The table above shows the YouGov monthly averages from its daily polls for the period 2013-2015. These numbers are being highlighted to make a statement about all the pollsters – that for much of the last parliament Labour enjoyed substantial leads and it was only in recent months that this started to decline. These voting intention shares were being recorded in poll and after poll…

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This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next CON leadership contest

This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next CON leadership contest

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Being able to confront Ed was an opportunity that he fluffed For me one of the best bits of TV during the campaign was at the end of yesterday’s Andrew Marr show when the programme’s two main participants traditionally join each other on the sofa for the closing couple of minutes. This time it was Boris and Ed and the wide judgement was that the Mayor lost. This is how Nick Robinson saw it. Wonder how many Tories still think…

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Labour’s hoping that taking on the non doms could be a narrative changer

Labour’s hoping that taking on the non doms could be a narrative changer

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The Guardian's front page lead on Labour's plans for non doms http://t.co/Ge1YtTRuHI pic.twitter.com/NTa2bcMjvR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2015 The first big policy development of the campaign Today’s announcement by Miliband that if they win power they’d end the special tax status of non-doms is the first genuine policy surprise of the campaign and could be quite a tricky one for Cameron/Osborne to respond to. For the perception that the blues are on the side of the rich and…

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CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

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CON retains 1% lead with TNS CON 33% (-) LAB 32% (-) UKIP 16%(-1) LD 8% (+1) GN 5% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 On range of measures Times Redbox YouGov polling finds significant improvements on last month for EdM pic.twitter.com/4gel4QUBKn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 seats markets moves up to 14. Was 9 9 on Sun. pic.twitter.com/xfW3JJ8B0c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The second morning of GE2015 TNS, with its new…

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Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

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“Labour voters are also generally lukewarm about their leader in a way that Conservatives are not about theirs.” – Opinium The above chart shows how well Dave and badly Ed do among their own supporters, as other pollsters generally find as well. I’m of the view, that Ed’s poor ratings are priced into the voting intention, and that the voting intention is largely correct. We’re going to find out in nine weeks time if it is priced in or not….

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Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

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@Ed_Miliband kicks off by going with the tax avoidance issue pic.twitter.com/b7p8pp0pNC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 Why he’s becoming like tennis player Lleyton Hewitt at his prime It’s easy to look at British politics as though it were boxing. Journalists will often speak of whether there were any ‘knock out blows’ in Prime Minister’s. Instead I look at the it through the prism of sport I love, which PB old hands know is tennis. Of course there are…

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Miliband needs to avoid being caught in a Greek pincer

Miliband needs to avoid being caught in a Greek pincer

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David Herdson’s Saturday column Every Labour government ends up running out of money, though not all go to the trouble of leaving a note to their successor to say so. That they do so is not exactly a feature of left-of-centre politics but it’s not far off: a belief in a big state and increased protection for low-income and vulnerable groups inevitably means lots more spending and because of the protests that would come as a result, a structural deficit…

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Henry G Manson on Tony Blair’s criticism of Miliband’s election strategy

Henry G Manson on Tony Blair’s criticism of Miliband’s election strategy

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Tony Blair's attack on Miliband's strategy http://t.co/J8QUkmlb4x pic.twitter.com/FFvOdb5FZ9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 31, 2014 Labour could win a different way in 2015 Tony Blair has not offered Ed Miliband the same courtesy It is a sign of desperation that Blair has intervened publicly with The Economist in this way. His ‘wing’ of the party is a ragged mess. Many closest supporters and former ministers are no longer MPs, a leadership contest that should have been a shoo-in for David…

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