Overnight in the US, starting at 2am BST, is the first TV debate between Trump and Biden. This is a huge moment and could set the narrative for the remaining five weeks before election day. A TV audience of of tens of millions is expected A key plank of the Trump campaign in recent months has been to try to suggest that 77 year old Biden does not have the mental capacity to be President. This means that they’ve set…
This bombshell comes on the eve of the first WH2020 TV debate With polling day in the US just five weeks and one day away a huge development this morning is a New York Times investigation into the incumbent’s tax affairs – something that he has fought hard to avoid being made public. This is how the paper sums up what it found: Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his…
We are just 5 weeks and 5 days away from the presidential election and the striking thing is how solid Biden’s lead has been in the national polls as shown in the chart above. There’s been hardly any variation and this is currently being supported by some good swing state polling suggesting that that he could be in a strong position when the votes are finally counted. The latest move in the election, the Republican effort to fill quickly the…
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll carried out after the news of the Supreme Court vacancy became known finds a significant level voter opposition to the Trump/McConnell plan to fill it before the election. A total of 62% of US adults thought the vacancy should be filled by the winner of the November 3rd White House election, while 23% disagreed and the rest said they were not sure. As you would expect eight out of 10 Democrats want the decision delayed until…
I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden. There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close…
The whole nature of the 2020 campaign has just changed. For all her liberal views, one of the most significant legacies of Ruth Bader Ginsburg – via the happenstance of when she died – might be to embed a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court for a generation. Time is short. The Republicans have only six weeks to secure a replacement if they are to be able to go to their voters and claim the achievement of having delivered…
On Betfair he’s 53% to Trump’s 45% We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been. On the UK exchange, Betfair, a total of £82m+ has already been wagered on one market alone and that is just one bookmaker. All of the conventional firms and the spread betting companies have very active markets and by the…