We are just 5 weeks and 5 days away from the presidential election and the striking thing is how solid Biden’s lead has been in the national polls as shown in the chart above. There’s been hardly any variation and this is currently being supported by some good swing state polling suggesting that that he could be in a strong position when the votes are finally counted.
The latest move in the election, the Republican effort to fill quickly the vacant Supreme Court place, looks set to be portrayed by the Democrats as being all about Obamacare. This has been under threat from the right ever since it was introduced by the last Democratic incumbent of the White House. Currently there is a court case heading to the Supreme Court that could make the whole provisions of Obamacare illegal.
It’s quite hard to appreciate in a country which has as history of public health care systems like the UK how important Obamacare has become to tens of millions of Americans. A really key worry and potential huge turnout driver is a move that would take away cover from those with pre-existing conditions.
We saw in the Midterm elections 2 years ago how successful an issue the Democrats were able to make the Trump threat to Obamacare and now the political dynamic is even more powerful.
One of the most politically risky situations is when there is a threat to take away a provision that millions have come to regard as an entitlement. This is going to dominate the final weeks of the campaign and it is hard to see how it helps the Republicans.