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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Is the move to McCain faltering?

Is the move to McCain faltering?

After storming forward in the betting following his Palin V-P pick and the convention the move to the Republicans has faltered as the above chart of Betfair prices converted to an implied probability shows. Before the weekend it looked as though the 72 year old Senator would be favourite in all markets. Now only the Dublin-based Intrade has him tighter than evens. The latest Iowa Electronic Market fix was at about Obama 56% to McCain’s 44%. Certainly McCain is still…

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What will be the political impact of the Lehman collapse?

What will be the political impact of the Lehman collapse?

Will it enable Obama to refocus more strongly on the economy? The economic and financial impacts of the failure of Lehman Brothers have been rippling outwards today as stock markets around the world are sharply down (with the FTSE dropping almost 4% and the Dow currently down about 2.5%). But what will be the political consequences of the events on Wall Street? With the polls and the markets narrowing in the White House race, is this one “event” that actually…

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Does Joe Biden have a point?

Does Joe Biden have a point?

Would Hillary have been a better choice for VP? It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Obama-Biden ticket. The stadium finale of the Denver Convention was overshadowed by the historic choice of Governor Sarah Palin by John McCain, the GOP has rediscovered some optimism, and the Republican ticket has taken a lead in the national polls. Much of this is attributed to Palin, who has both energised the Conservative base, and injected some glamour and hope into what…

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How long before McCain’s the Betfair favourite?

How long before McCain’s the Betfair favourite?

But will Palin’s Teflon coating wear off? The money has continued to pile on John McCain in the White House betting and the Betfair market has him at the equivalent of 43% chance. This compares with a 44.5% chance on the Iowa Electronic Markets where “shares” in political futures are traded. The Dublin-based Intrade now has McCain as favourite at 50.5%. This trend will continue until the poll swing to the Republican falters or moves in the opposite direction and…

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How big a gaffe was this?

How big a gaffe was this?

Could relations with a McCain White House be undermined? Lots of coverage in the UK papers this morning of the article that appeared under Gordon Brown’s name in a specialised publication in which it appeared that the PM was backing Obama over McCain in the White House race. The gentle mocking by the McCain campaign is reflected in the headline in the panel above with the term – “The Coveted Gordon Brown endorsement”. The piece opens “Far be it from…

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Is McCain betting too much on Palin?

Is McCain betting too much on Palin?

What if “Troopergate” gets out of hand? So the White House race has come alive and promises to be an absorbing contest which will grip us for seven weeks or so and maybe even beyond. “Lipstickgate” has been the issue of the day and the way it has developed reflects the changing media narrative – Obama is under fire as the focus goes on Sarah Palin. On the polling front the Gallup daily tracking poll is now showing a 5%…

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Will this be another boost for McCain?

Will this be another boost for McCain?

Should foreigners just keep out? A new poll for the BBC World Service poll shows that in all 22 countries surveyed, people wanted Obama to be the next President rather than McCain. The Democratic nominee was preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled. But is this exactly the sort of thing that will do Obama harm? We all recall the Guardian’s crazy exercise in 2004 when readers were encouraged to send emails to…

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Guest slot by Kieran on Obama’s strategic dilemma

Guest slot by Kieran on Obama’s strategic dilemma

Should it be a referendum on Obama or on Bush/McCain? In contrast to early expectations the 2008 Presidential election is proving a very tight race. This is a huge surprise given the political atmospherics. George Bush has approval ratings in the low 30s while 80% of Americans feel the country is on the wrong track. Polls show a generic Democrat beating a generic Republican by double digits. Why then is the race so close and what does this mean for…

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