As you’ll have seen, Sarah Palin has finally confirmed that she won’t be running, and that must mean that the field is finally set (surely no entry from Rudy?!). There will be a PB poll tomorrow afternoon on the 2012 White House race. With Nevada holding its caucus on 14th January, New Hampshire (by state law a week before any “similar election”) looks set for 3rd January if it sticks to the traditional Tuesday – and that would mean the…
Washington Post What will be the impact of this on the GOP race?
Betfair Politics Chris Christie moves sharply into the GOP betting With time getting very tight for new contenders to enter the race to be the Republican party’s nominee for next year’s White House there’s been a rush of punters trying to get on Chris Christie – the heavyweight governor of New Jersey’s who’s become the favoured choice of the party establishment. The New York Times reports that “….Those pushing Mr. Christie to run include the media mogul Rupert Murdoch, former…
Betfair Politics
What are Christie’s chances if he decides to run? Over the past week or so the big buzz in the fight for the Republican nomination is whether Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, will enter the race. Senior figures in the party have been pressing him to put his hat into the ring because they believe that a moderate conservative with a good record would have a better chance of beating Obama than the current front-runner, Mitt Romney, or last…
Intrade prices The money moves from the Texan after latest debate There’ve been sharp moves in the GOP nominee betting following the latest TV debate between the declared contenders. Mitt Romney has now tightened to 5/4 on Betfair while Rick Perry’s price has moved out. The Intrade market, on which a lot of US-based punters gamble, has Romney’s chances at 42% while Perry has slipped to 32%. In the debate in Orlando all the other candidates made him the focus…
Betfair Politics Is Romney set to return to the favourite slot? While we’ve been focussed on UK issues there’s been a fair bit of movement in the Republican nominee betting. As the chart of Betfair prices shows the sentiment is moving back to Romney once again. Inevitably a lot more questions are being asked of Perry who is not that well-known outside his native Texas. I think that both him and Perry are too tightly priced given that the first…
Betfair Politics How soon before the Republicans are favourites? The chart says it all – the steady decline in the Democratic party’s position in the betting on the 2012 White House race. The numbers are based on the implied probability expressed as a percentage from the latest Betfair prices. The chart itself automatically updates as prices change. I like this market because it shows more how the betting sentiment is moving without naming the runners. This week’s big developments –…