Browsed by
Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

How the 47 percent gaffe is killing Romney: The betting and the polling

How the 47 percent gaffe is killing Romney: The betting and the polling

Comments 0 Comment

Follow @MSmithsonPB Betfair Plus the latest RCP averages from the key swing states OHIO (2008: Obama +4.6, 2004: Bush +2.1) VIRGINIA (2008: Obama +6.3, 2004: Bush +8.2) FLORIDA (2008: Obama +2.8, 2004: Bush +5.0) In a new article on the excellent 538 blogNate Silver makes the following observation about the impact of the 47%. “After a secretly-recorded videotape was released on Sept. 17, showing Mitt Romney making unflattering comments about the “47 percent” of Americans whom he said had become dependent on…

Read More Read More

Dick Morris says Romney by 4 points

Dick Morris says Romney by 4 points

Comments 0 Comment

Should we listen to the ex-Clinton man who advised UKIP? Since the party conventions the polling and the betting in the White House race has all been one way – to Barack Obama. The narrative is firm – the president is going to be re-elected and Mitt Romney’s gaffe-prone campaign will fail. There are few voices expressing any other point of view but I thought that this Fox News interview with Dick Morris was worth looking at. He makes the…

Read More Read More

Asking the same leadership questions in both the UK and US

Asking the same leadership questions in both the UK and US

Comments 0 Comment

Ipsos-MORI It’s now clear that the leadership questions released on Cameron and Miliband earlier this week were part of a much bigger transatlantic survey involving the Ipsos group of which MORI is its UK arm. I thought it odd at the time that included in the list was “man of faith” – something that didn’t seem right from a UK perspective. The info-graphic above sets out the findings with stronger figures, in the main, for the incumbent in each case….

Read More Read More

Will Romney pay an electoral price for his “47 percent” gaffe?

Will Romney pay an electoral price for his “47 percent” gaffe?

Comments 0 Comment

Re: 47%: You’ll win most bets in the end by assuming media has overplayed the importance of a gaffe. It could matter, but want to see polls. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 19, 2012 And yet, Romney feels like he’s playing a strategy where his pitch maxes out at 47%-49% of voters. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 19, 2012 In other words: not sure that 47% will give Obama much immediate help in polls. But could lower Romney’s ceiling. —…

Read More Read More

Could Romney win the popular vote but lose the White House

Could Romney win the popular vote but lose the White House

Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes are offering 16/1 against such an eventuality With Romney and Obama still pretty close in the national polls Ladbrokes have put up a market that we could have a repeat of the 2000 situation where the popular vote winner (Al Gore) lost the race because George W Bush won more electoral college votes. All states are allocated a number of electoral college votes and winner of the election is the one who secures 270 or more. In most of…

Read More Read More

Just 53 days of campaigning left and the Obama lead over Romney is being sustained

Just 53 days of campaigning left and the Obama lead over Romney is being sustained

Comments 0 Comment

But could the convention bounce evaporate like McCain’s? Above is the latest Real Clear Politics round up of polling in the 2012 White House Race and the message is that the Obama gap has got wider and is being sustained. Only Rasmussen is showing a different picture. The big hope of the Romney camp must be that the boost that the President has received since the convention will, like with John McCain in 2008 be eroded rapidly more than a…

Read More Read More

Romney punters start to panic on Intrade. Now the Irish exchange is moving into line with Betfair and others

Romney punters start to panic on Intrade. Now the Irish exchange is moving into line with Betfair and others

Comments 0 Comment

One of the betting oddities on the 2012 White House race has been why the Irish exchange, Intrade, has been so out of line with Betfair, other bookies and in the US the Iowa Electronic Markets – something that I looked at nearly a month ago in a piece for the Telegraph. The gaps have been so large that it’s been hard to explain why punters there have been ready to risk money at much poorer odds for Romney when…

Read More Read More

Mitt Romney slips further in the betting after disappointing post-conventions polling

Mitt Romney slips further in the betting after disappointing post-conventions polling

Comments 0 Comment

On Betfair he’s 32.2% chance down 5 since his Tampa speech It is always said that there are three critical points when a challenger in a presidential race can change the narrative and his prospects. The first comes, usually in the August, with the choice of the V-P nominee. The second comes with the party national conventions and thirdly there are the debates. We’ve now completed two of those and Mitt Romney is still waiting for his breakthrough in both…

Read More Read More