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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Cross-over voting could be the biggest threat to Trump in New Hampshire the 1st full primary state:

Cross-over voting could be the biggest threat to Trump in New Hampshire the 1st full primary state:

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RCP New Hampshire GOP Voters decide which party primary to vote in and non-Republicans might try to stop Trump One of the hardest thing for many in Britain to understand is that each state in the US operates its primaries differently. Iowa has it caucuses where the party choices are determined in 1,600 precinct meeting across the state. The organisation of these is carried out by the parties. In New Hampshire where the first full primary takes place voters can…

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Pulpstar on the Republican Nomination

Pulpstar on the Republican Nomination

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The GOP race for the White House is utterly fascinating, and represents a proper betting contest rather than the 1-10 shot Hilary Clinton is in the Democrat race. I look on as an outsider, with no particular knowledge of US politics outside of resources available to anyone else – Wikipedia, 538 and real clear politics. How should we start to analyse such an interesting contest – well past performance is no guarantee to the future, but there are quite a…

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The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz

The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz

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The betting barely moved I didn’t stay up for the latest GOP debate overnight and have yet to watch the entire event. So my comments here are based on the betting markets and what respected US commentators thought. This was the judgement of Political Wire’s Taegan Goddard: “.. Once again, Trump was the winner. Cruz took some hits on how he would combat the Islamic State, but he was very strong. Rubio fell short in defending himself on immigration in…

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Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

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Loras College poll has Cruz 7% ahead in IowaCruz 30Trump 23Rubio 11Carson 11Bush 6Fiorina 3,Paul 2Huckabee 2Christie 0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 @ppppolls have Trump still ahead in IowaTrump 28Cruz 25Rubio 14Carson 10Bush 7Fiorina 3Christie 3Huckabee 3Paul 2Kasich 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 ABC/Wash Post poll has Trump with big lead in national pollTrump 38Cruz 15Rubio 12Carson 12Bush 5Christie 4Paul 2Kasich 2Fiorina 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 Republican nominee race: At…

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The race for the Republican nomination could be clearer after tonight’s final debate of 2015

The race for the Republican nomination could be clearer after tonight’s final debate of 2015

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The polling front runner in Iowa, Ted Cruz, likely to come under close scrutiny in tonight's final 2015 GOP debate pic.twitter.com/kLIzukSNTI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 The contender in the spotlight – Ted Cruz Judging by the size of the TV audiences for the debates this coming fight for the Republican nomination is attracting more public attention than any previous White House race at the stage. This evening, at about 2 a.m. UK time, CNN in conjunction with…

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The pollster with the best record in Iowa has Cruz taking 10% lead in the 1st state to decide

The pollster with the best record in Iowa has Cruz taking 10% lead in the 1st state to decide

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The Des Moines Register poll Cruz 31% +21 Trump 21% +2 Carson 13% -15 Rubio 10% +1 Bush 5% – (Comparisons with last DMR poll in October) As was discussed on the last post Ann Selzer polling for the state’s leading newspaper has over the years built up an enviable reputation. Her approach reaches those most likely to vote in the caucuses. You can see why Donald Trump started rubbishing this poll before it came out as it implies Trump,…

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Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a history of springing surprises

Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a history of springing surprises

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Here’s odds-on Democratic favourite Howard Dean in 2004 How will Trump cope with the caucus hurdle? We’ve got just seven weeks to wait until the first US voters start making their choices in the 2016 White House race. As has become the custom since 1972 the first state to express a choice is Iowa with its caucuses. Here, instead of going to a polling station like in the states that have full primaries, interested voters attend separate party meetings in…

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David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

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The lessons of a Trump defeat would resonate for decades Only one person has set the race for next year’s GOP nomination alight and that person is Donald Trump. Behind his blaze of controversy, energy, self-publicity and populism lies a field strewn with the bewilderment of his rivals: how has he lasted so long? Why have his gaffes not brought him down? How can he be effectively taken on? As yet, they have no answers. That was painfully apparent in…

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