The turnout challenge facing Sanders as seen by Nate Cohn. NYThttps://t.co/VlNiAMKJlq pic.twitter.com/69oECgsHik — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2016 The full article is here
Cruz makes last minute plea to pastors in the state There’s an increasing consensus which I buy into that if Trump wins in Iowa next Monday then he’ll be almost unstoppable. The organisational challenges at the state’s caucuses are formidable. Probably only about 12% of those eligible take part in the complex process of attending a two hour meeting in one of the 1,600 precincts where caucus meetings are held. Generally the best guide as to whether someone will participate…
7 days till Iowa. How the polls did in previous electionshttps://t.co/d28erYivkh pic.twitter.com/iTFgroQNXF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016 ARG Democratic poll in Iowa has Sanders 48% Clinton 45%GOP race Trump 33% Cruz 26%https://t.co/L1APSJBxtl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016
Many punters lost a lot of money that night One of the great nights on PB was the New Hampshire primary in January 2008. It came a week after the Iowa caucuses where Obama pulled off a significant victory. Interest was intense as one of the two main parties look set to be the first in US history not to select a white man as nominee. Following Iowa the media narrative was all on Obama and the final polls for…
Can he beat Clinton and if so, the Republican? In contrast to all the interest that the Republicans have delivered in their pre-primary contest, the Democrats’ affair has been a low-key, staid affair so far: two candidates plus an also-ran, of which one has been an overwhelming favourite for a long time, backed with huge financial and political muscle; the other, a 74-year-old self-described socialist who has never even run for election as a Democrat before. It ought to be…
Salon Trump now Betfair favourite to win Iowa An ongoing issue for Cruz has been whether the fact that he was Canadian born makes him ineligible to serve as President. The constitution lays down that the office holder has to be a “natural born” American. There are many legal views on this, read the article linked to above, and it would probably end up in the Supreme Court. The question at this stage just before the primaries start is not…
Pew Research How the race has become totally polarised The above chart has just been published by the excellent Pew Research and is in many ways a US equivalent to the “good PM” ratings that we see in the UK. I think these numbers are worrying for both front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Hillary doesn’t have the positive levels that her team would be hoping for while for Trump it us the negative findings that are the most…
You can get her at 5/1 as GOP V-P nominee With only 11 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the former Governor of Alaska and 2008 VP candidate, Sarah Palin, flew into the state last night and endorsed Donald Trump for the Presidency. This is the first state to decide and where the property billionaire turned TV star, Donald Trump, is competing now in second place in most polls. In the betting Ted Cruz remains the favourite to win…