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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the markets could be over-reacting

One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the markets could be over-reacting

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Why I’ve now taken my Clinton spread betting profits There’s a rule in betting generally that markets have a tendency to over-react to big news. With the White House race we saw Trump price rise sharply to more than 30% when the initial FBI announcement came about opening up the email case a week and a half ago. Overnight we’ve seen the opposite with Trump moving back to the 16-17% range on Betfair as an instant reaction to the no…

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Trump’s price is moving out Betfair because of tonight’s FBI news

Trump’s price is moving out Betfair because of tonight’s FBI news

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FBI finds no evidence of criminality in latest batch of @HillaryClinton emailshttps://t.co/qbXYhlMUia #USElection pic.twitter.com/wihbpnRJt4 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) November 6, 2016 Trump’s price on Betfair has gone from around 4.9 to over 6 just now. Tonight’s news will come as a relief to Team Clinton. My prediction on the back of tonight’s FBI intervention, if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency on Tuesday James Comey will be resigning shortly thereafter, lest she appoints him the US Ambassador to the Islamic…

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Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race

Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race

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Embed from Getty Images If Trump can win the Presidency then Corbyn can become Prime Minister for the same reasons With the White House race observers on both sides of the Atlantic have tried to draw similarities to politics in the United Kingdom, namely Trump is analogous to Brexit, but perhaps the better analogy is Donald Trump is more akin to Jeremy Corbyn. At first glance the roisterer that is Donald Trump seems like the antithesis of Jeremy Corbyn but…

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What happened when Guido got into an after dinner discussion with Nigel Farage and Arron Banks on who’ll be President

What happened when Guido got into an after dinner discussion with Nigel Farage and Arron Banks on who’ll be President

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So dinner; PM said she'd have Boris put down like a dog, Craig Oliver made her retch, bet @Arron_banks & @Nigel_Farage £20,000. G'night. pic.twitter.com/yliVFOUwnn — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) November 3, 2016 The agreed odds suggest he’s got a betting bargain Last night there were the Spectator Parliamentary Awards which, judging by the Tweets, turned out to quite an occasion with a series of extraordinary comments by amongst others Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. These will be fully covered…

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Clinton drops 32 on the Electoral College Votes spread betting markets

Clinton drops 32 on the Electoral College Votes spread betting markets

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As regulars will know I like spread betting where the more you are right the more you win. Unfortunately the same formula works if you are wrong. As the Witney by-election I bought LD vote share at 25% and they got 30.2% which meant I got back 5.2 times my stake level and built up my balance with Sporting Index. Tonight I’ve bought Clinton ECVs at 302 because I think that the polling and markets have over reacted to Friday’s…

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Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem

Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem

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Maybe things aren’t as bad for Clinton after all? YouGov has produced what I regard as must read analysis by Benjamin Lauderdale of the LSE and Douglas Rivers on what it terms phantom polling swings. Thus on the face of it there has been a move from Clinton to Trump in the aftermath of the FBI announcement. Their argument is that this might not be all it seems In essence they are saying is that whenever there’s particularly bad news…

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As WH2016 moves into the final straight the PB/Polling Matters team looks at the polling & what might happen

As WH2016 moves into the final straight the PB/Polling Matters team looks at the polling & what might happen

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Is it getting closer and could there be a big surprise? In this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley), Leo Barasi (@leobarasi) and Rob Vance (@robvance) look at the latest US election polling and discuss whether the they are tightening. Keiran explains why he is less relaxed about a Clinton victory than the others. The discussion then turns to the electoral college and discuss key states to look out for next Tuesday including Ohio, Florida, North…

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Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

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Can Trump really overtake Clinton to take the White House? In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/pGEkHMbrF2 — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) November 1, 2016 Heavy betting today on WH2016 with the money going on Trump – now a 27%, chance on Betfair. £2.5m wagered on this market alone pic.twitter.com/thHT0TZG1Q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016 The latest…

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